Banks in the GCC stand to gain from higher energy prices and a rise in interest rates that will significantly improve their bottom lines as cost of risk continues to decline amid economic growth in the region, S&P Global Ratings said.
On average, a 100-basis-point (bps) increase in benchmark interest rates would boost earnings by 13 per cent and result in 1 per cent capital accretion for lenders across the region, Mohamed Damak, senior director for Financial Institutions Ratings, told a webinar on Thursday.
The drive to increase efficiencies and aggressive technology adoption to cut costs will also bolster banks' earnings.
“We expect the cost of risk to continue to reduce and normalise over the next one to two years, which will support the banks’ profitability,” Mr Damak said.
“The other factor that will support profitability in 2022 is the expected increase in interest rates,” he said and added that S&P expects six rate increases this year, including the one announced earlier this month.
On March 16, the central banks of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait increased their benchmark interest rates after the US Federal Reserve raised its key rates to rein in inflation, which has hit a 40-year high in the world's largest economy.
Most GCC central banks follow the Fed's moves on key interest rates due to their currency peg to the US dollar, with the exception of Kuwait, whose dinar is linked to a basket of currencies.
There is also little direct impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on banks in the GCC, as opposed to some European and global banks that have exposure to clients in the Russian and Ukrainian markets. The impact of the conflict on energy prices that rallied to a notch under $140 per barrel mark earlier this year will indirectly benefit lenders.
Brent, the benchmark for more than two thirds of the world's oil, has given up some gains but it still trading above the $120 per barrel mark.
“The good news is that the direct impact is limited for rated banks at least, due to limited exposure to both countries [engaged] in the conflict,” Mr Damak said.
We expect the cost of risk to continue to reduce and normalise over the next one to two years, which will support the banks’ profitability
Mohamed Damak,
senior director of Financial Institutions Ratings at S&P Global
“The indirect impact could materialise through higher oil prices, which is [actually] positive for the region, positive for the economy and positive for sentiment.”
The rating agency expects lending growth to pick up pace in the GCC despite rising interest rates.
“We expect a further acceleration as it [lending] has been accelerating already in some regional countries,” Mr Damak said.
Lending growth is expected to remain in the double digits in Saudi Arabia, the biggest Arab economy, primarily driven by growth in mortgages. The oil and gas and retail sectors will also “contribute to growth”, he said.
Kuwait’s lending markets will also expand, spurred by retail lending and the oil and gas sector, while in Qatar, “the government remains the main impetus for higher lending”, he said.
The rate of growth in the UAE, which has been relatively lower than that of Saudi Arabia, will also see “some acceleration” this year, Mr Damak added.
For the top 25 banks in the region, the asset quality indicators have been highly resilient and there was even a small decline in overall ratio of non-performing loans at the end of 2021, thanks largely to write-offs in bad debts, he said.
“Overall, we don’t expect the NPL ratio to exceed 5 per cent.”
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BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Saturday, May 16 (kick-offs UAE time)
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (4.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Freiburg (4.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin (4.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn (4.30pm)
Augsburg v Wolfsburg (4.30pm)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach (7.30pm)
Sunday, May 17
Cologne v Mainz (4.30pm),
Union Berlin v Bayern Munich (7pm)
Monday, May 18
Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen (9.30pm)
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
VEZEETA PROFILE
Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
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MATCH INFO
Karnataka Tuskers 110-5 (10 ovs)
Tharanga 48, Shafiq 34, Rampaul 2-16
Delhi Bulls 91-8 (10 ovs)
Mathews 31, Rimmington 3-28
Karnataka Tuskers win by 19 runs
The specs: McLaren 600LT
Price, base: Dh914,000
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 600hp @ 7,500rpm
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Fuel economy 12.2.L / 100km
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 38,387
Karl Malone 36,928
Kobe Bryant 33,643
Michael Jordan 32,292
LeBron James 31,425
Wilt Chamberlain 31,419
'Outclassed in Kuwait'
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The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Malcolm & Marie
Directed by: Sam Levinson
Starring: John David Washington and Zendaya
Three stars
Premier League results
Saturday
Crystal Palace 1 Brighton & Hove Albion 2
Cardiff City 2 West Ham United 0
Huddersfield Town 0 Bournemouth 2
Leicester City 3 Fulham 1
Newcastle United 3 Everton 2
Southampton 2 Tottenham Hotspur 1
Manchester City 3 Watford 1
Sunday
Liverpool 4 Burnley 2
Chelsea 1 Wolverhampton Wanderers 1
Arsenal 2 Manchester United 0
Normcore explained
Something of a fashion anomaly, normcore is essentially a celebration of the unremarkable. The term was first popularised by an article in New York magazine in 2014 and has been dubbed “ugly”, “bland’ and "anti-style" by fashion writers. It’s hallmarks are comfort, a lack of pretentiousness and neutrality – it is a trend for those who would rather not stand out from the crowd. For the most part, the style is unisex, favouring loose silhouettes, thrift-shop threads, baseball caps and boyish trainers. It is important to note that normcore is not synonymous with cheapness or low quality; there are high-fashion brands, including Parisian label Vetements, that specialise in this style. Embraced by fashion-forward street-style stars around the globe, it’s uptake in the UAE has been relatively slow.
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