January is the cruellest month when it comes to European gas demand. It is now the end of February and the continent has almost a year to bolster its strategic energy autonomy as the Russian attack on Ukraine continues.
Europe cannot replace all its Russian gas imports overnight — which amounts to 30 per cent of the EU total, of which 8 per cent transits through Ukraine. Even stopping buying gas from Moscow would not halt the attack — it made up 12 per cent of the country’s exports in December, an amount for which the Kremlin has probably made contingency plans.
There are three elements that may reduce or interrupt supply: military action, a Russian decision or Western sanctions.
Is this Mr Putin’s last territorial demand in Eurasia? It’s hard to imagine so if he successfully subjugates Ukraine. He has already rescued a Kazakh president and effectively reduced accomplice Belarus to subservience. Russian troops have long been stationed in the breakaway Transnistria statelet of non-Nato Moldova, which borders Ukraine.
Occupying Ukraine in the face of resistance will be destructive. If Germany holds firm on not certifying the Nord Stream II pipeline, the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine is still required — which could be interrupted by sabotage, accident, Moscow’s ukase (decree or order) or a European ban.
Moscow engineered Europe’s acute vulnerability in the run-up to this crisis, deliberately cutting back exports to empty gas storage. A rather mild winter, with the war coming as spring approaches, has saved Europeans so far.
However, this will not last. Dmitri Medvedev, Russia's former president and once chairman of Gazprom, tweeted: “Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2,000 [$2,254] for 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas!” This is twice the (already elevated) current price.
The initially weak European and American sanctions have just been toughened by much wider financial measures. The major hole is energy: oil, gas and coal, which comprised 60 per cent of Russian exports in 2019. Mr Medvedev’s message is clearly meant to deter any direct rules against Russian energy exports.
Brent crude prices soared 8.78 per cent to $105.34 on Thursday, then dropped back to $97.93 on Friday after US President Joe Biden announced that sanctions would not target energy supply — not even wood or coal. The US bans the import of Venezuelan and Iranian oil, but still allows Russian crude — even though it is a net exporter.
Efforts are under way to bar Russia from the Swift bank messaging system, along with outright prohibitions on dealing with some leading Russian banks and moves to freeze the country's central bank reserves.
Predictably, the crisis reinforces everyone’s prior strategies: environmentalists advocate getting off fossil fuels faster, nuclear supporters want reactors to keep running and traditional energy security practitioners argue for more diversified gas imports. Many don’t appear to realise that they’re all right — to an extent — and tearing down each other’s arguments is not constructive in a crisis.
So Europe needs more non-Russian gas. To reassure climate hawks, this does not mean importing more gas overall or relaxing the drive to get off fossil fuels. It’s a recognition that it would be better to produce domestically or buy gas from the US, Africa or the Gulf, and that this will come at a higher cost — which itself facilitates the job of displacing gas.
Rules can be set to fill storage facilities before winter — and the Gazprom-owned facilities in Europe taken over. Running liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminals at maximum may simply not be possible during the low-demand summer period — unless more storage is constructed.
The Netherlands’ giant Groningen field, being decommissioned over issues of earth tremors, could be revived temporarily. Much of Europe’s LNG import capacity is in Spain, which is poorly connected to the rest of the continent but emergency connections to France can be can be sped up.
Germany has announced that it will build two new LNG import terminals but these are only useful if there is enough gas on the global market. New LNG export facilities cannot be built overnight — probably two-and-a-half years at best for new US plants, longer elsewhere. The Biden administration could, though, expedite permits for four expansion projects that would, quite soon, add equivalent capacity to the Nord Stream II pipeline, or almost a third of typical Russian sales to Europe.
Germany and Belgium could halt the retirement of their remaining nuclear reactors, at least until dependence on Russian gas is eliminated. Coal-fired power plants will probably fire up, which may require relaxing European carbon pricing briefly. Solar power can be installed quickly, saving gas in summer for storage. Building wind power takes longer, but should also be hastened.
Electricity generation accounts for only about a third of European gas use. There is a need for contingency plans for the roughly 30 per cent going to industry, probably requiring rationing and decisions on which industries are “critical”.
Electricity generation accounts for only about a third of European gas use
Robin Mills
European governments will also not allow their citizens to freeze next winter. About 44 per cent of gas is used in buildings — mostly winter heating. That demands rapid action to boost insulation, install electrically driven heat pumps and solar water heaters, and protect low-income consumers. Still, even a crash programme will only have a limited effect this year.
The continent cannot cut itself off from Russian gas entirely without severe economic pain. Governments will have to be honest with their citizens and explain the necessity. The decision may be made for them anyway.
By 2030, options expand dramatically. After the 2014 annexation of Crimea, Europe made some improvements to its energy security — but there was a failure of imagination and political will to make radical changes. Europeans should beware not to waste the next eight years — and especially not the next eight months.
Robin M. Mills is the chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, Emma Corrin
Director: Shawn Levy
Rating: 3/5
Jigra
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Fixtures
Wednesday
4.15pm: Japan v Spain (Group A)
5.30pm: UAE v Italy (Group A)
6.45pm: Russia v Mexico (Group B)
8pm: Iran v Egypt (Group B)
ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
%3Cp%3ECreator%3A%20Tima%20Shomali%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0Tara%20Abboud%2C%C2%A0Kira%20Yaghnam%2C%20Tara%20Atalla%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
WISH
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chris%20Buck%2C%20Fawn%20Veerasunthorn%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ariana%20DeBose%2C%20Chris%20Pine%2C%20Alan%20Tudyk%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
FIXTURES
All games 6pm UAE on Sunday:
Arsenal v Watford
Burnley v Brighton
Chelsea v Wolves
Crystal Palace v Tottenham
Everton v Bournemouth
Leicester v Man United
Man City v Norwich
Newcastle v Liverpool
Southampton v Sheffield United
West Ham v Aston Villa
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
MATCH INFO
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Manchester United v Barcelona, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Match on BeIN Sports
Match info
Bournemouth 0
Liverpool 4 (Salah 25', 48', 76', Cook 68' OG)
Man of the match: Andrew Robertson (Liverpool)
What drives subscription retailing?
Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.
The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.
The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.
The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.
UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.
That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.
Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 2
(Martial 30', McTominay 90 6')
Manchester City 0
Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
MATCH INFO
Norwich City 1 (Cantwell 75') Manchester United 2 (Aghalo 51' 118') After extra time.
Man of the match Harry Maguire (Manchester United)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Rain Management
Year started: 2017
Based: Bahrain
Employees: 100-120
Amount raised: $2.5m from BitMex Ventures and Blockwater. Another $6m raised from MEVP, Coinbase, Vision Ventures, CMT, Jimco and DIFC Fintech Fund
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 3 (Sterling 46', De Bruyne 65', Gundogan 70')
Aston Villa 0
Red card: Fernandinho (Manchester City)
Man of the Match: Raheem Sterling (Manchester City)
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
2018 ICC World Twenty20 Asian Western Regional Qualifier
Saturday results
Qatar beat Kuwait by 26 runs
Bahrain beat Maldives by six wickets
UAE beat Saudi Arabia by seven wickets
Monday fixtures
Maldives v Qatar
Saudi Arabia v Kuwait
Bahrain v UAE
* The top three teams progress to the Asia Qualifier
When Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi
Known as The Lady of Arabic Song, Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi on November 28, 1971, as part of celebrations for the fifth anniversary of the accession of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan as Ruler of Abu Dhabi. A concert hall was constructed for the event on land that is now Al Nahyan Stadium, behind Al Wahda Mall. The audience were treated to many of Kulthum's most well-known songs as part of the sold-out show, including Aghadan Alqak and Enta Omri.
The specs: 2018 Jeep Grand Cherokee Trackhawk
Price, base: Dh399,999
Engine: Supercharged 6.2-litre V8
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 707hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 875Nm @ 4,800rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 16.8L / 100km (estimate)
Indika
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2011%20Bit%20Studios%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Odd%20Meter%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsole%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PlayStation%205%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20series%20X%2FS%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
