Financial markets have been on edge over the past few weeks as developments on the Russia-Ukraine border continue to be the major driver of price action.
While central banks are still the dominant underlying theme, traders are having to contend with uncertainty over the geopolitical situation, something that is tough to quantify. In this environment, gold has enjoyed solid gains as its role as the traditional safe-haven asset.
One thing that enthrals market followers, be they economists, analysts, investors, traders or speculators, is the simple day-to-day challenge of predicting and evaluating macro and micro news that affects price and risk.
After all, those taking responsibility for holding positions in financial markets are effectively “risk” managers. And these market participants can at least try to predict the outcome of central bank decisions by constructing models based on precedent, economic data and commentary from officials.
But the outcome of geopolitical events is not in any playbook, even if history shows which eventualities may result.
So, the outcome of Russia's stand-off, like any other geopolitical incident, is the kind of so-called “tail risk” that cannot be accurately modelled and may have huge consequences for the global economy.
This means outcomes are uncertain with volatility elevated — and this is generally the worst that can beset a market.
For example, volatility in the US government bond market, generally known as “the bedrock of the global financial system”, is close to its highest level since the peak of the market instability during the coronavirus crisis.
The concerns about monetary policy tightening among central banks to rein-in rampant inflation have added to the mix.
This environment of stubbornly high price pressures has recently started to benefit the gold price, highlighting the commodity’s status as a hedge against surging inflation.
While rising bets for more interest rate rises kept a lid on any meaningful upside for the non-yielding precious metal in early January, the crisis in Ukraine has provided the impetus for an advance to the psychological $1,900 price level.
Gold spot prices have broken above $1,900 in recent sessions, but it has yet to register a daily close above it — at least for now.
One interesting factor to take notice of is gold’s relationship with “real” interest rates, which are adjusted for inflation. Historically, “real” rates are inversely correlated with gold, which means that when they are rising, the price of the precious metal will fall.
This is because higher interest rates make non-interest bearing assets such as gold less appealing. In effect, they would raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. But this has not been the case this year. While “real” rates have risen, gold prices have remained resilient.
This may be down to increasing growth concerns in the US as the Federal Reserve is forced to act to tame inflation.
Several Wall Street analysts are whispering that we could see a policy mistake from the Fed and other central banks.
While we will not know if any coming decision will lead the US economy into recession for some time, investors like the certainty of holding gold in their portfolios if this does come to pass.
Gold has a long and relatively stable history in investment portfolios. It has been promoted as a safeguard against diminished purchasing power of fiat currencies such as the dollar.
It also has a long record of helping to cushion investors from unforeseen shocks as a store of value in times of stress. We need look no further than 2020, when it paid to have an investment in bullion as markets struggled to absorb the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
The short performance history and price volatility of alternative asset classes like cryptocurrencies, which have been dubbed “digital gold”, simply highlight the relative attractiveness of the physical, shiny metal in times of crisis.
Hussein Sayed is the chief market strategist at Exinity
COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
Brave CF 27 fight card
Welterweight:
Abdoul Abdouraguimov (champion, FRA) v Jarrah Al Selawe (JOR)
Lightweight:
Anas Siraj Mounir (TUN) v Alex Martinez (CAN)
Welterweight:
Mzwandile Hlongwa (RSA) v Khamzat Chimaev (SWE)
Middleweight:
Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Rustam Chsiev (RUS)
Mohammad Fakhreddine (LEB) v Christofer Silva (BRA)
Super lightweight:
Alex Nacfur (BRA) v Dwight Brooks (USA)
Bantamweight:
Jalal Al Daaja (JOR) v Tariq Ismail (CAN)
Chris Corton (PHI) v Zia Mashwani (PAK)
Featherweight:
Sulaiman (KUW) v Abdullatip (RUS)
Super lightweight:
Flavio Serafin (BRA) v Mohammad Al Katib (JOR)
RedCrow Intelligence Company Profile
Started: 2016
Founders: Hussein Nasser Eddin, Laila Akel, Tayeb Akel
Based: Ramallah, Palestine
Sector: Technology, Security
# of staff: 13
Investment: $745,000
Investors: Palestine’s Ibtikar Fund, Abu Dhabi’s Gothams and angel investors
If you go
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct to Nairobi, with fares starting from Dh1,695. The resort can be reached from Nairobi via a 35-minute flight from Wilson Airport or Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, or by road, which takes at least three hours.
The rooms
Rooms at Fairmont Mount Kenya range from Dh1,870 per night for a deluxe room to Dh11,000 per night for the William Holden Cottage.
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
The Farewell
Director: Lulu Wang
Stars: Awkwafina, Zhao Shuzhen, Diana Lin, Tzi Ma
Four stars
6 UNDERGROUND
Director: Michael Bay
Stars: Ryan Reynolds, Adria Arjona, Dave Franco
2.5 / 5 stars
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
UAE%20ILT20
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Short-term let permits explained
Homeowners and tenants are allowed to list their properties for rental by registering through the Dubai Tourism website to obtain a permit.
Tenants also require a letter of no objection from their landlord before being allowed to list the property.
There is a cost of Dh1,590 before starting the process, with an additional licence fee of Dh300 per bedroom being rented in your home for the duration of the rental, which ranges from three months to a year.
Anyone hoping to list a property for rental must also provide a copy of their title deeds and Ejari, as well as their Emirates ID.
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
If you go
Flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh with a stop in Yangon from Dh3,075, and Etihad flies from Abu Dhabi to Phnom Penh with its partner Bangkok Airlines from Dh2,763. These trips take about nine hours each and both include taxes. From there, a road transfer takes at least four hours; airlines including KC Airlines (www.kcairlines.com) offer quick connecting flights from Phnom Penh to Sihanoukville from about $100 (Dh367) return including taxes. Air Asia, Malindo Air and Malaysian Airlines fly direct from Kuala Lumpur to Sihanoukville from $54 each way. Next year, direct flights are due to launch between Bangkok and Sihanoukville, which will cut the journey time by a third.
The stay
Rooms at Alila Villas Koh Russey (www.alilahotels.com/ kohrussey) cost from $385 per night including taxes.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The specs: 2018 Kia Picanto
Price: From Dh39,500
Engine: 1.2L inline four-cylinder
Transmission: Four-speed auto
Power: 86hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 122Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.0L / 100km
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, semi-final result:
Liverpool 4-0 Barcelona
Liverpool win 4-3 on aggregate
Champions Legaue final: June 1, Madrid
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3EDate%20started%3A%20January%202022%3Cbr%3EFounders%3A%20Omar%20Abu%20Innab%2C%20Silvia%20Eldawi%2C%20Walid%20Shihabi%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Dubai%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20PropTech%20%2F%20investment%3Cbr%3EEmployees%3A%2040%3Cbr%3EStage%3A%20Seed%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Multiple%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
Pakistan squad
Sarfraz (c), Zaman, Imam, Masood, Azam, Malik, Asif, Sohail, Shadab, Nawaz, Ashraf, Hasan, Amir, Junaid, Shinwari and Afridi
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The years Ramadan fell in May
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
Four tips to secure IoT networks
Mohammed Abukhater, vice president at FireEye in the Middle East, said:
- Keep device software up-to-date. Most come with basic operating system, so users should ensure that they always have the latest version
- Besides a strong password, use two-step authentication. There should be a second log-in step like adding a code sent to your mobile number
- Usually smart devices come with many unnecessary features. Users should lock those features that are not required or used frequently
- Always create a different guest network for visitors
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
Cultural fiesta
What: The Al Burda Festival
When: November 14 (from 10am)
Where: Warehouse421, Abu Dhabi
The Al Burda Festival is a celebration of Islamic art and culture, featuring talks, performances and exhibitions. Organised by the Ministry of Culture and Knowledge Development, this one-day event opens with a session on the future of Islamic art. With this in mind, it is followed by a number of workshops and “masterclass” sessions in everything from calligraphy and typography to geometry and the origins of Islamic design. There will also be discussions on subjects including ‘Who is the Audience for Islamic Art?’ and ‘New Markets for Islamic Design.’ A live performance from Kuwaiti guitarist Yousif Yaseen should be one of the highlights of the day.
