A ship is offloaded at Khalifa Port in Kizad, Abu Dhabi. The government is exempting industrial imports from customs tax from January 19. Courtesy Abu Dhabi Ports
A ship is offloaded at Khalifa Port in Kizad, Abu Dhabi. The government is exempting industrial imports from customs tax from January 19. Courtesy Abu Dhabi Ports
A ship is offloaded at Khalifa Port in Kizad, Abu Dhabi. The government is exempting industrial imports from customs tax from January 19. Courtesy Abu Dhabi Ports
A ship is offloaded at Khalifa Port in Kizad, Abu Dhabi. The government is exempting industrial imports from customs tax from January 19. Courtesy Abu Dhabi Ports

Recovery under way in Mena countries but dangers loom, IMF says


Massoud A Derhally
  • English
  • Arabic

The economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic across the Mena region is uneven and low-income states must press on with reforms and job creation or risk social unrest, according to the International Monetary Fund.

After contracting 3.2 per cent in 2020, the Mena region is forecast to grow about 4.1 per cent this year and in 2022, upward revisions of 0.1 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points since April, the fund said.

In large part, the upgrade is a reflection of the improved performance of stronger economies in the region.

“What I can tell you is [that] 2021 is the year of recovery. Economies are doing well since the beginning of the year. We see an improvement in the outlook,” Jihad Azour, the head of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia department, told The National.

However, the “recovery is not even” and not all countries have the same economic conditions, with those that rapidly vaccinated their populations and introduced measures to protect their economies quickly, faring better and rebounding faster, he said.

While the region made transformative changes with the uptake in technology and increased digitisation, not all countries are on par.

We [see] vulnerabilities coming and this is why we are highlighting the importance of addressing those inclusion issues
Jihad Azour,
head of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia department

Although certain countries such as Morocco introduced economic reforms and are integrated into the global supply chain, which helped them rebound, other low-income countries are lagging and vulnerable.

Rising inflation and surging energy costs that have led to food prices surging 40 per cent this year present risks that are more pronounced for poor countries and exacerbate the effects of the pandemic on fragile states.

The pandemic sharply affected countries that had a limited capacity to vaccinate, with vulnerable groups in society such as women, youths, those in the informal sector and small and medium enterprises affected the most. The average unemployment rate for the Mena region rose to 11.6 per cent last year.

Inflation in the Mena region is forecast to hit 12.9 per cent this year, up from 10.5 per cent in 2020, before falling to about 8.8 per cent in 2022, according to the fund's estimates. It has been forecast at about 195 per cent and 39 per cent this year in Sudan and Iran, respectively.

“When we look at … mostly oil-importing countries, we see a certain number of challenges: low growth, low productivity, high debt, high inequalities and high unemployment,” Mr Azour said.

“When you have low growth and high debt, it increases vulnerabilities. If inflation is to persist, you need to address it and this may require adjusting interest rates," he said.

"If we see a change in the global financial markets, which means that maybe interest rates could go up globally or access to international capital markets will be less accommodative than it is now, this could have an impact.”

While the region's oil exporters will benefit from the recovery in global demand, higher oil prices, and wider vaccine coverage, oil-importing countries are expected to register an increase in gross government debt (projected at more than 100 per cent of GDP in 2021).

That has led to an increase of about 50 per cent in gross financing needs for 2021-2022 ($390 billion) compared to the 2018-2019 period, according to the IMF.

“The risks we are seeing today that need to be addressed [are] high debt, scarring effect, impact on labour and the need to prepare for a large transformation through additional investment, and some of those countries do not have enough resources for that,” Mr Azour said.

“It is not the time to relax. We need not to underestimate the impact of this crisis on SMEs and you need to move fast in rehabilitating labour.”

Unemployment increased by 1.5 per cent to 2 per cent this year across the Mena region while youth unemployment was between 25 per cent and 27 per cent, said Mr Azour.

Countries that do not have the fiscal space need to assume a multipronged approach as they look to get back on track, he said.

They need to come a full circle in addressing Covid-19 and hasten their vaccination campaigns. In tandem, governments need to recalibrate measures that were introduced during the crisis and focus on those in need as they also pursue structural reforms, Mr Azour said.

“If you want to increase productivity, if you want to create jobs, you still have way to go by reforming the public sector, recalibrating the role of SOEs [state-owned enterprises] and give more space to the private sector,” he said.

Last month, Egypt's Public Enterprise Minister Hisham Tawfik said the country was putting an end to loss-making SOEs and turning to the private sector to fuel the country's economic recovery. In 2018, Egypt identified 23 SOEs that could either be listed on the Egyptian stock exchange or potentially sell additional stakes. However, the pandemic contributed to delays.

“The real name of the game today is to finish the work on turning a page on Covid; you need to address the stabilisation issue but you need to do it in an inclusive way," said Mr Azour.

"What this crisis showed us is that the informal sector is not as good [at] buffering a crisis as it used to in the past, so when it comes to social assistance, you need to be more targeted to help people get additional skills and redirect your spending to providing more social support and investing in technology and 5G."

Aside from countries focusing on health, education and the expansion of social safety nets, they need to leverage digital technology that was instrumental during the pandemic while also adjusting their policies in line with climate change needs, the fund said.

The IMF is cognisant of possible social unrest across the Mena region.

“We [see] vulnerabilities coming and this is why we are highlighting the importance of addressing those inclusion issues," Mr Azour said.

"If you do not provide additional space for job creation, you will have and you will keep having challenges to social stability in the region.”

Naga
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EMeshal%20Al%20Jaser%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EAdwa%20Bader%2C%20Yazeed%20Almajyul%2C%20Khalid%20Bin%20Shaddad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha

Starring: Ajay Devgn, Tabu, Shantanu Maheshwari, Jimmy Shergill, Saiee Manjrekar

Director: Neeraj Pandey

Rating: 2.5/5

The specs

AT4 Ultimate, as tested

Engine: 6.2-litre V8

Power: 420hp

Torque: 623Nm

Transmission: 10-speed automatic

Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)

On sale: Now

Specs

Engine: 51.5kW electric motor

Range: 400km

Power: 134bhp

Torque: 175Nm

Price: From Dh98,800

Available: Now

Emergency

Director: Kangana Ranaut

Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry 

Rating: 2/5

FROM%20THE%20ASHES
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Khalid%20Fahad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Shaima%20Al%20Tayeb%2C%20Wafa%20Muhamad%2C%20Hamss%20Bandar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The biog

Favourite hobby: taking his rescue dog, Sally, for long walks.

Favourite book: anything by Stephen King, although he said the films rarely match the quality of the books

Favourite film: The Shawshank Redemption stands out as his favourite movie, a classic King novella

Favourite music: “I have a wide and varied music taste, so it would be unfair to pick a single song from blues to rock as a favourite"

The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.5-litre%20twin-turbo%20V6%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E456hp%20at%205%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E691Nm%20at%203%2C500rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10-speed%20auto%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E14.6L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh349%2C545%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting 

2. Prayer 

3. Hajj 

4. Shahada 

5. Zakat 

Director: Laxman Utekar

Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna

Rating: 1/5

The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

Read part one: how cars came to the UAE

Specs

Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric

Range: Up to 610km

Power: 905hp

Torque: 985Nm

Price: From Dh439,000

Available: Now

The years Ramadan fell in May

1987

1954

1921

1888

BMW M5 specs

Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor

Power: 727hp

Torque: 1,000Nm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh650,000

Company Profile:

Name: The Protein Bakeshop

Date of start: 2013

Founders: Rashi Chowdhary and Saad Umerani

Based: Dubai

Size, number of employees: 12

Funding/investors:  $400,000 (2018) 

The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting

2. Prayer

3. Hajj

4. Shahada

5. Zakat 

The years Ramadan fell in May

1987

1954

1921

1888

UFC%20FIGHT%20NIGHT%3A%20SAUDI%20ARABIA%20RESULTS
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
  • Priority access to new homes from participating developers
  • Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
  • Flexible payment plans from developers
  • Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
  • DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Results
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3EElite%20men%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Amare%20Hailemichael%20Samson%20(ERI)%202%3A07%3A10%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Leornard%20Barsoton%20(KEN)%202%3A09%3A37%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Ilham%20Ozbilan%20(TUR)%202%3A10%3A16%0D%3Cbr%3E4.%20Gideon%20Chepkonga%20(KEN)%202%3A11%3A17%0D%3Cbr%3E5.%20Isaac%20Timoi%20(KEN)%202%3A11%3A34%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EElite%20women%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Brigid%20Kosgei%20(KEN)%202%3A19%3A15%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Hawi%20Feysa%20Gejia%20(ETH)%202%3A24%3A03%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Sintayehu%20Dessi%20(ETH)%202%3A25%3A36%0D%3Cbr%3E4.%20Aurelia%20Kiptui%20(KEN)%202%3A28%3A59%0D%3Cbr%3E5.%20Emily%20Kipchumba%20(KEN)%202%3A29%3A52%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs

Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request

The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part one: how cars came to the UAE

 

Conflict, drought, famine

Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.

Band Aid

Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.

The specs
 
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)

In Search of Mary Shelley: The Girl Who Wrote Frankenstein
By Fiona Sampson
Profile

The specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm

Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm

Transmission: 9-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh117,059

Ferrari 12Cilindri specs

Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12

Power: 819hp

Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm

Price: From Dh1,700,000

Available: Now

Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)

Founders: Ines Mena, Claudia Ribas, Simona Agolini, Nourhan Hassan and Therese Hundt

Date started: January 2017, app launched November 2017

Based: Dubai, UAE

Sector: Private/Retail/Leisure

Number of Employees: 18 employees, including full-time and flexible workers

Funding stage and size: Seed round completed Q4 2019 - $1m raised

Funders: Oman Technology Fund, 500 Startups, Vision Ventures, Seedstars, Mindshift Capital, Delta Partners Ventures, with support from the OQAL Angel Investor Network and UAE Business Angels

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDirect%20Debit%20System%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sept%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20with%20a%20subsidiary%20in%20the%20UK%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Undisclosed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Elaine%20Jones%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Long read

Mageed Yahia, director of WFP in UAE: Coronavirus knows no borders, and neither should the response

The specs: 2018 BMW R nineT Scrambler

Price, base / as tested Dh57,000

Engine 1,170cc air/oil-cooled flat twin four-stroke engine

Transmission Six-speed gearbox

Power 110hp) @ 7,750rpm

Torque 116Nm @ 6,000rpm

Fuel economy, combined 5.3L / 100km

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Results

2-15pm: Commercial Bank Of Dubai – Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (Dirt) 1,400m; Winner: Al Habash, Patrick Cosgrave (jockey), Bhupat Seemar (trainer)

2.45pm: Al Shafar Investment – Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: Day Approach, Ray Dawson, Ahmad bin Harmash

3.15pm: Dubai Real estate Centre – Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Celtic Prince, Richard Mullen, Rashed Bouresly

3.45pm: Jebel Ali Sprint by ARM Holding – Listed (TB) Dh500,000 (D) 1,000m; Winner: Khuzaam, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson

4.15pm: Shadwell – Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Tenbury Wells, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer

4.45pm: Jebel Ali Stakes by ARM Holding – Listed (TB) Dh500,000 (D) 1,950m; Winner: Lost Eden, Andrea Atzeni, Doug Watson

5.15pm: Jebel Ali Racecourse – Handicap (TB) Dh76,000 (D) 1,950m; Winner: Rougher, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson

Red flags
  • Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
  • Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
  • Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
  • Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
  • Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.

Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching

Updated: October 19, 2021, 11:52 AM`