Six o'clock in the Tunisian capital and the half-light is beginning to spread across Tunis. The sun drops rapidly here; you keep expecting the sun to set and then, quite suddenly, it's gone.
And now the people arrive, like the night, suddenly. I look and see two or three walking past; I look again, there are 10, and behind them more. They are talking, urgently, as if this meeting was long planned and needs to be rapidly conducted. By the time I reach them to hear what they are saying, several other groups have sprung up, and there are easily 50 people.
This scene is repeated daily on Habib Bourghiba Avenue, the main thoroughfare in Tunis, that runs down to the medina's entrance. Ever since president Zine al Abidine Ben Ali fled the country and the regime of fear he created evaporated, Tunisians have been gathering in the evenings to talk and debate with complete strangers.
It is a scene impossible to understand without witnessing it. The urgency in the groups is overwhelming. For brief periods, people cluster around a main speaker, who, moments earlier, had been talking to just one or two people. Now 30 or 40 are pushing close to hear his words and debate. Another man starts talking, then a third asks a question, then a fourth offers an opinion. Soon the crowd has moved, regrouping around the fourth man, with the first speaker left on the edges. This process repeats itself endlessly.
The topics are complex, the debate surprisingly informed. In one group I hear a discussion about whether the former president should be brought to trial from Saudi Arabia. "Leave him there," interjects one man. "We have just got rid of him; you want him back already?"
"He has to go in front of a court. We need to know where the money is."
"He's right, he's right," says a third. "His money is the people's money."
"With his money, he will buy his way back to power," murmurs another. People nod and the debate takes off.
Is this what political freedom is like up close? This hunger, this desire for debate, this outpouring of words and words. I am absolutely astonished by the depth of the debate and wonder what future will be constructed from it.
Because after the talking comes the voting. Tunisians go to the polls on July 24 to choose an assembly to rewrite the country's constitution. For the first time in decades the outcome of a vote is unknown.
July's vote is just the beginning of the story, with presidential elections to follow swiftly. There are dozens of political parties - 44 at the last count - which will be seeking influence in the coming months and no one knows conclusively which individual party or, more likely, grouping, will emerge with popular support.
The old behemoth that was the Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD), the ruling party of Ben Ali, has now been dissolved. Its towering headquarters just off Habib Bourghiba is empty and has been ransacked. Soldiers and barbed wire guard it. "Death to the RCD," someone has scrawled on its walls in French.
The elephant in the room is An Nahda, the Islamist opposition party that was ruthlessly suppressed and crushed under Ben Ali's rule. Rachid Ghannouchi, the movement's leader, returned in January from a 20-year exile and the party is now legal. Its newspaper, Al Fajr, has been reopened.
An Nahda's spokespersons claim a majority of the country would vote for them, but also maintain they have no wish to change the constitution or force their views on the population.
But it is clear they see a change coming, one they feel is more in tune with the mood of the country. Mr Ghannouchi told me he understood the fear of change that some secularists had: "They used to live without Islam, without Islamism for more than 20 years. So when they see that Islam comes back to its country, they get afraid because they are a minority.
"When they see our meetings are the largest meetings and our newspaper has the largest audience, they fear the country can move from the secular to another culture, an Arab or Muslim culture."
The party maintains this change will be gradual and made without coercion. But few secularists believe the party or are willing to take the chance. Women especially are concerned that their freedoms will be revoked in this most liberal of Arab countries. "If they force me to wear the headscarf, I will leave the country," says one fashion designer. "Do you think they can take my freedom, change my life and still keep me here?"
The bitterness of feeling towards An Nahda is palpable, but it is imprecise; the party has no plans to impose a dress code on women and says its opposition to the ban on headscarves is based on giving women freedom of choice.
The price Tunisians paid to be free to talk has not been cheap - many died in the uprisings and during the long years of repressive rule. But the consequences of voting will be unpredictable. The transition to democracy will probably be messy, especially early on, as parties find their feet.
The question is less whether the parties can find ways to work together than whether the people can co-exist. The coming elections may bring shocking results for this small, independent-minded Arab country. A big victory for the Islamists might change the dynamic of the country's politics and even the internal dynamics of An Nahda, empowering wings of the group to push for more reforms more quickly. Equally, a poor performance might empower hardliners. A strong showing by either side might polarise the electorate of this young democracy, with unpredictable consequences.
Unpredictable, but not unprecedented. For there is one other fear Tunisians have: becoming Algeria. In 1992, in their next-door neighbour, a military coup halted what looked likely to be the electoral victory of Islamists, a spark that ignited a civil war that lasted until 2002. Tough debate and polarised positions can slip into something darker surprisingly swiftly.
Back on Habib Bourghiba Avenue, the open air salons are still in progress. There are easily 150 people on the street. Some move among the groups, listening for topics they care about. An older lady is crossing the avenue with her shopping when she hears something that moves her. "No, no, no!" she says, wagging her finger and wading into the crowd, pulling her bags with her as she berates the speaker. The crowd parts, giving her the space to talk until, her point made, she adjusts her jacket, grips her bags, and heads off into the city darkness.
The crowd takes her verdict with equanimity. But with so many opinions suddenly unleashed, fighting to be heard, whether Tunisians will take the verdict of the ballot box in the same spirit remains to be seen.
falyafai@thenational.ae
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Should late investors consider cryptocurrencies?
Wealth managers recommend late investors to have a balanced portfolio that typically includes traditional assets such as cash, government and corporate bonds, equities, commodities and commercial property.
They do not usually recommend investing in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies due to the risk and volatility associated with them.
“It has produced eye-watering returns for some, whereas others have lost substantially as this has all depended purely on timing and when the buy-in was. If someone still has about 20 to 25 years until retirement, there isn’t any need to take such risks,” Rupert Connor of Abacus Financial Consultant says.
He adds that if a person is interested in owning a business or growing a property portfolio to increase their retirement income, this can be encouraged provided they keep in mind the overall risk profile of these assets.
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The specs
Engine: 2.9-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 540hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 600Nm at 2,500rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Kerb weight: 1580kg
Price: From Dh750k
On sale: via special order
Going grey? A stylist's advice
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
The Lowdown
Kesari
Rating: 2.5/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Anubhav Singh
Cast: Akshay Kumar, Parineeti Chopra
'Gehraiyaan'
Director:Shakun Batra
Stars:Deepika Padukone, Siddhant Chaturvedi, Ananya Panday, Dhairya Karwa
Rating: 4/5
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 720hp
Torque: 770Nm
Price: Dh1,100,000
On sale: now
Abu Dhabi GP starting grid
1 Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2 Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)
3 Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari)
4 Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari)
5 Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull)
6 Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
7 Romain Grosjean (Haas)
8 Charles Leclerc (Sauber)
9 Esteban Ocon (Force India)
10 Nico Hulkenberg (Renault)
11 Carlos Sainz (Renault)
12 Marcus Ericsson (Sauber)
13 Kevin Magnussen (Haas)
14 Sergio Perez (Force India)
15 Fernando Alonso (McLaren)
16 Brendon Hartley (Toro Rosso)
17 Pierre Gasly (Toro Rosso)
18 Stoffe Vandoorne (McLaren)
19 Sergey Sirotkin (Williams)
20 Lance Stroll (Williams)
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
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The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
The bio
Job: Coder, website designer and chief executive, Trinet solutions
School: Year 8 pupil at Elite English School in Abu Hail, Deira
Role Models: Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk
Dream City: San Francisco
Hometown: Dubai
City of birth: Thiruvilla, Kerala
U19 World Cup in South Africa
Group A: India, Japan, New Zealand, Sri Lanka
Group B: Australia, England, Nigeria, West Indies
Group C: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Scotland, Zimbabwe
Group D: Afghanistan, Canada, South Africa, UAE
UAE fixtures
Saturday, January 18, v Canada
Wednesday, January 22, v Afghanistan
Saturday, January 25, v South Africa
UAE squad
Aryan Lakra (captain), Vriitya Aravind, Deshan Chethyia, Mohammed Farazuddin, Jonathan Figy, Osama Hassan, Karthik Meiyappan, Rishabh Mukherjee, Ali Naseer, Wasi Shah, Alishan Sharafu, Sanchit Sharma, Kai Smith, Akasha Tahir, Ansh Tandon
Bombshell
Director: Jay Roach
Stars: Nicole Kidman, Charlize Theron, Margot Robbie
Four out of five stars
