Picture the scene: the people of an authoritarian state rise up. The streets of the capital are flooded by citizens and even after the military is called in, the protests do not stop. Finally, the president departs. Months later, more than a dozen candidates face the public in a democratic vote, the outcome of which no one can predict. One of the candidates is a former prime minister, the face of the previous regime. The people vote. And he wins.
What sounds like a prediction of the victory of Ahmed Shafiq in Egypt's presidential election is actually what happened in Kyrgyzstan in October last year, when the new president, Almazbek Atambayev, won power through the ballot box, the first Central Asian leader to do so.
The parallels with Egypt do not end there. Since Mr Atambayev came to power, he has presided over a newly elected parliament that is far more unruly that anything that has come before. He has also grappled with what will be a central question for Egypt, and remains a central question for all the Central Asian republics: the role of religion in public life.
This question was very much on the minds of delegates this week in Astana, the capital of neighbouring Kazakhstan, as religious leaders from all the world's major faiths gathered to affirm the importance of faith in public life.
"The removal of religion from the society also removes the values of the society," said one Christian participant at a round-table discussion, held in the impressively designed Palace of Peace and Reconciliation, a pyramid of glass and steel in the city centre. "The atheist societies of the 20th century failed and were swept away. Faith is a natural desire of a human being. Societies that do not recognise this are not realistic.
"They will fail as well."
This was a popular sentiment at the conference but expressed in a curious geographical setting. For with the exception of Kyrgyzstan, most Central Asian countries limit the expression of religion in public life, in some cases forcefully.
There are two reasons for this. The first is cultural: the Islam of "the stans" has historically been private and spiritual, nomadic in parts and in others, due to trade, tolerant and open. People are devout in private but few demonstrate outward signs of devotion. The beards and headscarves that signal devout Muslims in other parts of the world - indeed in neighbouring South Asia - are largely absent. A region that has historically been part of the very centre of the Islamic world has evolved its own traditions, and governments have no cause to fiddle with them.
In any case, the Central Asian countries are not monolithically Muslim. All have significant Muslim populations, but also have other faiths. Nestled in downtown Astana are a strikingly designed synagogue, a Russian Orthodox church and a Catholic one, all on the same road. A Central Asian leader who openly favoured one faith would quickly find unrest.
The second is security: this is a dangerous neighbourhood, a jumble of ethnicities and twisting borders, with the flashpoints of Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan just beyond. Religion plays a serious role in the politics of all those countries, with not always stable results.
Moreover, some of the same political trends can be detected in these former Soviet republics, which is why these governments watch Islamic groups closely. It is natural for them to suppose that, were there more religion in public life, then they would look more like their neighbours.
Central Asian countries have nervously watched the situation in Afghanistan, which shares long, porous borders with three of the five "stans". At least three have had attacks linked to militant Islam. If these Russian-leaning governments dislike the extensive US presence, they fear the departure of American troops from Afghanistan and the region more.
Which way, then, to swing on religion in public life?
In 2003, an International Crisis Group report on radical Islam in Central Asia concluded that a more open political system would allow religious actors public space to express their ideas, allowing an open discussion on religion in public life and leading to greater cohesion. So far, however, that trend has been resisted.
Today the discussion is heading the other way in Egypt and other post-Arab Spring countries, where Islamists have made significant political gains.
For too long, religious movements were held at bay and their ability to offer policy solutions to the population circumscribed.
Curiously, this helped Islamists by allowing them to declare Islam the solution without offering the details. The hope is that, once in power, Islamists will find they have to be responsive to their people, who want more action on schools and jobs and less on faith and morality. The essence to rebuilding Egypt rests with reforming the economy, and that will require good politics and stability: if religious actors can provide that, runs the thinking, all the better.
In Central Asia, the results of going the other way have been mixed, at best. The democratic experiment in Kyrgyzstan has been unruly: elements of religion are more of a factor in public life than ever before.
The power of religious groups - in particular Tablighi Jamaat, a revivalist Islamic group that has been banned in every other Central Asian country - is growing; many are publicly asserting their own brands of Islam.
The thinking of the Kyrgyz government seems to be that, if religion in public life is expanded, the militant strain will fade away, leading to greater stability. That may yet happen but it hasn't happened yet.
By contrast, next door, the tighter hand of Kazakhstan has led to a huge leap forward in wealth: it is now a middle-income country, easily the most dynamic economy in the region. That boom has been fuelled by huge oil and gas reserves, but perhaps also by a lack of friction, with little political and religious expression.
In Islam Without A Veil: Kazakhstan's Path of Moderation, the journalist Claude Salhani writes that this is a deliberate strategy, to focus on economic growth while keeping the society stable.
"Kazakhstan, due to its geographic location, is nearly 50 per cent surrounded by Muslim countries that either have a strong Islamic presence or where Takfiris [those who accuse others of being nonbelievers] tend to be active," he writes.
"Kazakhstan, much like other countries in the region, has much invested in seeing this tension disappear so that it can get on with the business of making business."
This will also be the first task for Egypt. Even the Islamists, for all the talk of their newly elected parliamentarians about social issues, understand this. Regaining lost tourism and investor confidence, reducing corruption and creating jobs will be essential tasks. Legislating on moral issues will need to take a back seat.
But how to make that tension disappear is the central question that will face the new Egyptian president. There are costs either way. Authoritarian control inevitably stifles creativity and risk-taking, as well as increasing corruption. Too much religion can be unruly.
When Egyptians go back to the polls to elect a new president, they will face these same questions: stick with the firm hand of the military, or offer the Islamists a greater role in their public life. There are no easy answers from Central Asia, except the least helpful: too much of either is bad.
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The%20specs
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In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Correspondents
By Tim Murphy
(Grove Press)
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
Results:
CSIL 2-star 145cm One Round with Jump-Off
1. Alice Debany Clero (USA) on Amareusa S 38.83 seconds
2. Anikka Sande (NOR) For Cash 2 39.09
3. Georgia Tame (GBR) Cash Up 39.42
4. Nadia Taryam (UAE) Askaria 3 39.63
5. Miriam Schneider (GER) Fidelius G 47.74
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Abramovich London
A Kensington Palace Gardens house with 15 bedrooms is valued at more than £150 million.
A three-storey penthouse at Chelsea Waterfront bought for £22 million.
Steel company Evraz drops more than 10 per cent in trading after UK officials said it was potentially supplying the Russian military.
Sale of Chelsea Football Club is now impossible.
How to play the stock market recovery in 2021?
If you are looking to build your long-term wealth in 2021 and beyond, the stock market is still the best place to do it as equities powered on despite the pandemic.
Investing in individual stocks is not for everyone and most private investors should stick to mutual funds and ETFs, but there are some thrilling opportunities for those who understand the risks.
Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, says the 20 best-performing US and European stocks have delivered an average return year-to-date of 148 per cent, measured in local currency terms.
Online marketplace Etsy was the best performer with a return of 330.6 per cent, followed by communications software company Sinch (315.4 per cent), online supermarket HelloFresh (232.8 per cent) and fuel cells specialist NEL (191.7 per cent).
Mr Garnry says digital companies benefited from the lockdown, while green energy firms flew as efforts to combat climate change were ramped up, helped in part by the European Union’s green deal.
Electric car company Tesla would be on the list if it had been part of the S&P 500 Index, but it only joined on December 21. “Tesla has become one of the most valuable companies in the world this year as demand for electric vehicles has grown dramatically,” Mr Garnry says.
By contrast, the 20 worst-performing European stocks fell 54 per cent on average, with European banks hit by the economic fallout from the pandemic, while cruise liners and airline stocks suffered due to travel restrictions.
As demand for energy fell, the oil and gas industry had a tough year, too.
Mr Garnry says the biggest story this year was the “absolute crunch” in so-called value stocks, companies that trade at low valuations compared to their earnings and growth potential.
He says they are “heavily tilted towards financials, miners, energy, utilities and industrials, which have all been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic”. “The last year saw these cheap stocks become cheaper and expensive stocks have become more expensive.”
This has triggered excited talk about the “great value rotation” but Mr Garnry remains sceptical. “We need to see a breakout of interest rates combined with higher inflation before we join the crowd.”
Always remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Last year’s winners often turn out to be this year’s losers, and vice-versa.
Jeff Buckley: From Hallelujah To The Last Goodbye
By Dave Lory with Jim Irvin
Company profile
Name: Infinite8
Based: Dubai
Launch year: 2017
Number of employees: 90
Sector: Online gaming industry
Funding: $1.2m from a UAE angel investor
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
MATCH INFO
Tottenham Hotspur 3 (Son 1', Kane 8' & 16') West Ham United 3 (Balbuena 82', Sanchez og 85', Lanzini 90' 4)
Man of the match Harry Kane
