If there is one thing that unites Middle Eastern leaders these days, it is concern over what Donald Trump might do in 2017. A true political outsider, Trump will arrive in the White House next month with no track record and no political markers that might give an indication.
The list of policy problems is certainly long, yet his list of policy ideas, as mooted during his campaign speeches and interviews, is worryingly short. Perhaps the Iran nuclear deal will be “ripped up”. Perhaps the United States embassy will be moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Perhaps support for Syrian rebels will be withdrawn. Those are a lot of “maybes” for a region needing certainty.
With few concrete policy ideas, attention has turned to any underlying political philosophy. And here again, there is a blank. Certainly, Trump wants to break with the past. But beyond that, he appears to have no principles to guide him to the future. Most of what Trump appears to want to do is to not do things.
Overall, he is an isolationist, a true retrenchment president in the mould of Barack Obama. Republicans in the US are fond of talking about what “American power” can do in the world. Trump, unusually for a politician from the right, has a keen sense of the limits of US power. He believes the Iraq war was a disaster, that the US, with Nato, should not have intervened in Libya, and that in general it should remove itself from the region.
Yet just because Trump has a sense of the limits of US power doesn’t mean he has a sense of humility about it. The crucial difference lies in how he conceptualises US power and what it can do in the world. Like George W Bush, he believes force can solve problems – but crucially, and worryingly, he also believes problems can be solved piecemeal, like business deals.
This view of politics as dealmaking will almost certainly lead him to make decisions that have seriously bad consequences. Politics in a region as interconnected as the Middle East cannot be understood piecemeal, nor can it be understood as dealmaking. The element of justice is crucial.
Political actions have consequences. Obama’s decision not to intervene in Syria had an effect as surely as any intervention.
For Trump, ripping up the Iran deal will have consequences – indeed, even the suggestion that the deal will be ripped up has consequences, as Iran will prepare for that eventuality, most likely by interfering further in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.
The same is true of Palestine and Israel. Moving the US embassy from the Israeli capital to Jerusalem is an overt recognition that the US will accept Israel’s occupation of East Jerusalem, understood by every other country to be a violation of international law. Again, that has consequences, intended or otherwise. In Palestine, it will provoke a reaction, which will be bloodily put down by Israel. Worse, it empowers the Israeli right – and the right-wing in other countries – by showing that the US will eventually accept illegal acts, as long as countries do them for long enough.
Nowhere will that message be more clearly heard than in Damascus, already celebrating the de facto retreat by Obama. Bashar Al Assad now has as good as a free hand, together with Russian fighter jets and Iranian soldiers, to destroy what remains of Aleppo, extend his control back across the country, and starve, torture and slaughter his opponents into submission.
This is the crucial problem with piecemeal politics: it ignores all the consequences that follow. Piecemeal politics looks at the world as if it were a game of chess, where once the king has been captured, the game ends. In reality, everyone on the board keeps playing. Retreat from the Syrian civil war will not end it; it will simply shift from a ground war to an insurgency.
If Trump’s foreign policy in the region is based simply on trying to make deals here and there, putting out fires when they appear, it will fail, regardless of how much money, political capital or military force is used.
The missing piece of the puzzle is justice. Dealmaking forgets how people act in the real world. People can put aside their grievances in a business deal and then work together within the agreement. But no people can put aside grievances that involve their very identities. Without justice, there will be no future for Palestine, regardless of any “deal” made. Without justice, the Syrian rebels will continue to find a way to fight and civilians will continue to become refugees. Without justice, Iraq’s sectarian communities will continue to fight one another. Dealmaking may work when building hotels in New York. But building a brighter Middle East will require justice.
Faisal Al Yafai is chief columnist at The National.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Klopp at the Kop
Matches 68; Wins 35; Draws 19; Losses 14; Goals For 133; Goals Against 82
- Eighth place in Premier League in 2015/16
- Runners-up in Europa League in 2016
- Runners-up in League Cup in 2016
- Fourth place in Premier League in 2016/17
How green is the expo nursery?
Some 400,000 shrubs and 13,000 trees in the on-site nursery
An additional 450,000 shrubs and 4,000 trees to be delivered in the months leading up to the expo
Ghaf, date palm, acacia arabica, acacia tortilis, vitex or sage, techoma and the salvadora are just some heat tolerant native plants in the nursery
Approximately 340 species of shrubs and trees selected for diverse landscape
The nursery team works exclusively with organic fertilisers and pesticides
All shrubs and trees supplied by Dubai Municipality
Most sourced from farms, nurseries across the country
Plants and trees are re-potted when they arrive at nursery to give them room to grow
Some mature trees are in open areas or planted within the expo site
Green waste is recycled as compost
Treated sewage effluent supplied by Dubai Municipality is used to meet the majority of the nursery’s irrigation needs
Construction workforce peaked at 40,000 workers
About 65,000 people have signed up to volunteer
Main themes of expo is ‘Connecting Minds, Creating the Future’ and three subthemes of opportunity, mobility and sustainability.
Expo 2020 Dubai to open in October 2020 and run for six months
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
About Takalam
Date started: early 2020
Founders: Khawla Hammad and Inas Abu Shashieh
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: HealthTech and wellness
Number of staff: 4
Funding to date: Bootstrapped
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
The specs: 2019 Mercedes-Benz C200 Coupe
Price, base: Dh201,153
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Power: 204hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 300Nm @ 1,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.7L / 100km
Results
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,200m. Winner: Majd Al Megirat, Sam Hitchcott (jockey), Ahmed Al Shehhi (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m. Winner: Dassan Da, Patrick Cosgrave, Helal Al Alawi
6pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m. Winner: Heba Al Wathba, Richard Mullen, Jean de Roualle
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m. Winner: Hameem, Adrie de Vries, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m. Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Richard Mullen, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 (T) 2,200m. Winner: Harbour Spirit, Adrie de Vries, Jaber Ramadhan.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
How it works
Each player begins with one of the great empires of history, from Julius Caesar's Rome to Ramses of Egypt, spread over Europe and the Middle East.
Round by round, the player expands their empire. The more land they have, the more money they can take from their coffers for each go.
As unruled land and soldiers are acquired, players must feed them. When a player comes up against land held by another army, they can choose to battle for supremacy.
A dice-based battle system is used and players can get the edge on their enemy with by deploying a renowned hero on the battlefield.
Players that lose battles and land will find their coffers dwindle and troops go hungry. The end goal? Global domination of course.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
ELECTION%20RESULTS
%3Cp%3EMacron%E2%80%99s%20Ensemble%20group%20won%20245%20seats.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20second-largest%20group%20in%20parliament%20is%20Nupes%2C%20a%20leftist%20coalition%20led%20by%20Jean-Luc%20Melenchon%2C%20which%20gets%20131%20lawmakers.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20far-right%20National%20Rally%20fared%20much%20better%20than%20expected%20with%2089%20seats.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20centre-right%20Republicans%20and%20their%20allies%20took%2061.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
MATCH INFO
Fixture: Ukraine v Portugal, Monday, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: BeIN Sports
Ferrari
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Michael%20Mann%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Adam%20Driver%2C%20Penelope%20Cruz%2C%20Shailene%20Woodley%2C%20Patrick%20Dempsey%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20pillars%20of%20the%20Dubai%20Metaverse%20Strategy
%3Cp%3EEncourage%20innovation%20in%20the%20metaverse%20field%20and%20boost%20economic%20contribution%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EDevelop%20outstanding%20talents%20through%20education%20and%20training%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EDevelop%20applications%20and%20the%20way%20they%20are%20used%20in%20Dubai's%20government%20institutions%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAdopt%2C%20expand%20and%20promote%20secure%20platforms%20globally%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EDevelop%20the%20infrastructure%20and%20regulations%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
WHAT%20ARE%20THE%20PRODUCTS%20WITHIN%20THE%20THREE%20MAJOR%20CATEGORIES%3F
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAdvanced%20materials%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20specifically%20engineered%20to%20exhibit%20novel%20or%20enhanced%20properties%2C%20that%20confer%20superior%20performance%20relative%20to%20conventional%20materials%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAdvanced%20components%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20includes%20semiconductor%20components%2C%20such%20as%20microprocessors%20and%20other%20computer%20chips%2C%20and%20computer%20vision%20components%20such%20as%20lenses%20and%20image%20sensors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAdvanced%20products%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20includes%20personal%20electronics%2C%20smart%20home%20devices%20and%20space%20technologies%2C%20along%20with%20industry-enabling%20products%20such%20as%20robots%2C%203D%20printing%20equipment%20and%20exoskeletons%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20Strategy%26amp%3B%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
