Pity those long-suffering Syrians yearning to be rid of President Bashar Al Assad the geopolitics of their plight: not only do they find themselves in the maelstrom of an increasingly sectarian civil war that is turning their country into a battlefront in the regional cold war between Saudi Arabia and Iran; their deadly stalemate may be reinforced by renewed great-power conflict.
Saturday's veto by Russia and China of a UN Security Council resolution demanding a halt to Syrian military action against rebellious citizenry marked a turning point whose implications reach well beyond the Syrian crisis. Moscow and Beijing complained that the resolution had put insufficient emphasis on stopping armed actions by an increasingly militarised opposition. Indeed, a civil war is already under way, fanned by the regime's bludgeoning of Homs and other rebellious towns. It's not hard to see how Mr Al Assad may have persuaded himself that he will fare worse under a political plan that requires his departure than on the path of civil war.
He may be hoping to emulate Serbia's Slobodan Milosevic, who survived the bloody Balkan wars he instigated by making himself indispensable to restoring peace. Even now, it's increasingly difficult to imagine the conflict being resolved by a political plan based on conditions that prevailed before the war broke out.
But for China and Russia, the calculations may have been less about Syria's situation than their own. Both insisted they were acting to avoid a repeat of Libya, where Nato powers used a Security Council resolution authorising force to protect civilians as a legal pretext to mount an air campaign in support of the rebels against Muammar Qaddafi. Moscow and Beijing are determined to avoid a pro-Western alternative replacing another regime in the Middle East.
Russia has immediate strategic interests in Syria, such as its naval base at Tartus, but it is also increasingly inclined to define its global political role in opposition to US hegemony. The Obama administration's recently declared reorientation of US strategic priorities towards containing Chinese influence in the Pacific left no doubt that Washington and Beijing regard one another as rivals. China is inclined to push back against the US in the Middle East — particularly in Iran, a regime independent of Washington that also offers China a massive source of energy that can be shipped by pipeline.
So, the Syria veto may have simply been the first volley in a new era of strategic rivalries, Russia and China making use of the anachronistic veto power awarded when the UN was created to the five Allied powers that had defeated Germany and Japan in the Second World War. As coincidence would have it, those same five powers - the US, the Soviet Union, Britain, France and China also became the original five nuclear-armed states, acquiring a strategic veto of an altogether different magnitude.
Powers great and small have often ignored Security Council mandates, but they do carry the force of international law and can be used as a basis to rally international coalitions for action - such as the Libya intervention, or the US-led operation to expel Iraqi forces from Kuwait in 1991. And the Russians and Chinese were clearly willing to stand against the consensus to prevent even a foot in the door for any kind of international action on Syria. Instead, those looking to support or arm the opposition would have to do so outside of any UN authorisation, while Russia will continue to arm the regime - and perhaps use the leverage obtained through its support to press Mr Al Assad to make limited changes.
Syria is not a strategic priority for Washington, of course, and there's no appetite in the US for any type of military intervention. Nor is it a strategic priority for China. But for both, it may be a warm-up bout ahead of a clash over Iran.
Those in Washington urging the most activist response to the Syria crisis do so on the basis that Mr Al Assad is Iran's key ally in the Arab world, and removing him would deal a major blow to Tehran. For Moscow and Beijing, Syria has been an opportunity to fire a warning shot across Washington's bow. It ought to be clear now - if there was ever much doubt - that there's no prospect of winning Security Council support for any significant escalation of sanctions against Iran. And UN sanctions are the only ones that member states are obliged to abide by - China, Turkey, India and a number of other countries are simply ignoring many of the more punishing unilateral sanctions adopted by the US and EU.
Despite Washington having worked hard to win Russian and Chinese support for the limited sanctions adopted by the Security Council, Moscow and Beijing have long made clear that while they believe Iran must comply with all of its obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, they don't believe Tehran is developing nuclear weapons. They argue that the sanctions and threats are counterproductive, and they have demanded a greater emphasis on dialogue with Tehran in resolving the issue.
Russia and China are part of the primary western negotiating vehicle with Iran - the Permanent Five plus Germany - and the Syria vote reminds Iran that significant strategic differences persist within that group. It may also portend a more assertive effort by Russia to sell its own version of a compromise on Iran, which has thus far not been embraced by western powers - although key regional players such as Ankara (sharply critical of Moscow and Beijing over the Syria veto) are far closer to the Sino-Russian position on Iran.
Syria's conflict - and the stand-off over Iran's nuclear programme - are unfolding against a backdrop of intensified regional and global strategic rivalry, marked by the re-emergence of old powers and the emergence of new ones, all of which combines to create a Middle East landscape less predictable and more turbulent than it's ever been.
Tony Karon is an analyst based in New York.
Follow on Twitter: @TonyKaron
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
GOODBYE%20JULIA
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The specs
Engine: 1.4-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 180hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 250Nm at 3,00rpm
Transmission: 5-speed sequential auto
Price: From Dh139,995
On sale: now
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MATCH INFO
World Cup qualifier
Thailand 2 (Dangda 26', Panya 51')
UAE 1 (Mabkhout 45 2')
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Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The years Ramadan fell in May
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
New Zealand 57-0 South Africa
Tries: Rieko Ioane, Nehe Milner-Skudder (2), Scott Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Ofa Tu'ungfasi, Lima Sopoaga, Codie Taylor. Conversions: Beauden Barrett (7). Penalty: Beauden Barrett
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Western Clubs Champions League:
- Friday, Sep 8 - Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Bahrain
- Friday, Sep 15 – Kandy v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
- Friday, Sep 22 – Kandy v Bahrain
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
World record transfers
1. Kylian Mbappe - to Real Madrid in 2017/18 - €180 million (Dh770.4m - if a deal goes through)
2. Paul Pogba - to Manchester United in 2016/17 - €105m
3. Gareth Bale - to Real Madrid in 2013/14 - €101m
4. Cristiano Ronaldo - to Real Madrid in 2009/10 - €94m
5. Gonzalo Higuain - to Juventus in 2016/17 - €90m
6. Neymar - to Barcelona in 2013/14 - €88.2m
7. Romelu Lukaku - to Manchester United in 2017/18 - €84.7m
8. Luis Suarez - to Barcelona in 2014/15 - €81.72m
9. Angel di Maria - to Manchester United in 2014/15 - €75m
10. James Rodriguez - to Real Madrid in 2014/15 - €75m
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Scoreline
Chelsea 1
Azpilicueta (36')
West Ham United 1
Hernandez (73')
Company profile
Name: Tratok Portal
Founded: 2017
Based: UAE
Sector: Travel & tourism
Size: 36 employees
Funding: Privately funded
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company%C2%A0profile
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Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Honeymoonish
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The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
'Young girls thinking of big ideas'
Words come easy for aspiring writer Afra Al Muhairb. The business side of books, on the other hand, is entirely foreign to the 16-year-old Emirati. So, she followed her father’s advice and enroled in the Abu Dhabi Education Council’s summer entrepreneurship course at Abu Dhabi University hoping to pick up a few new skills.
“Most of us have this dream of opening a business,” said Afra, referring to her peers are “young girls thinking of big ideas.”
In the three-week class, pupils are challenged to come up with a business and develop an operational and marketing plan to support their idea. But, the learning goes far beyond sales and branding, said teacher Sonia Elhaj.
“It’s not only about starting up a business, it’s all the meta skills that goes with it -- building self confidence, communication,” said Ms Elhaj. “It’s a way to coach them and to harness ideas and to allow them to be creative. They are really hungry to do this and be heard. They are so happy to be actually doing something, to be engaged in creating something new, not only sitting and listening and getting new information and new knowledge. Now they are applying that knowledge.”
Afra’s team decided to focus their business idea on a restaurant modelled after the Leaning Tower of Pisa. Each level would have a different international cuisine and all the meat would be halal. The pupils thought of this after discussing a common problem they face when travelling abroad.
“Sometimes we find the struggle of finding halal food, so we just eat fish and cheese, so it’s hard for us to spend 20 days with fish and cheese,” said Afra. “So we made this tower so every person who comes – from Africa, from America – they will find the right food to eat.”
rpennington@thenational.ae