This is a heady time for Middle Eastern politics, and not just because of the continuing Arab uprisings. The entire regional system is undergoing seismic shifts, often in contradictory directions, of the kind that have not occurred since at least the end of the Cold War. As Barack Obama said at the General Assembly of the United Nations this week: "The way things have been is not the way they will be."
A not inconsequential part of this story is that the order that is collapsing is in large part an American one, and that the one that is coming together will in all likelihood be less American. The question is not one of American eclipse — Washington will continue to be an important, if not the most important, player in the region. The question is how it might envision its new role in a region in flux.
Like any transition of this magnitude, it contains dangers. We see this today in the prospects for civil war in Syria, the disintegration of Yemen, the unanswered questions of post-Mubarak Egypt, the fragility of a new state in South Sudan, the lead curtain that has fallen over Bahrain, and the wilderness that the Israeli-Palestinian peace process finds itself in.
At the end of 2010, when a wave of protests in disadvantaged provinces of Tunisia sparked by the self-immolation of a street vendor did not yet threaten the Ben Ali regime or the regional order, I wrote in these pages that the region was addicted to America. Some countries now seem to want to quit by going cold turkey, others are beginning to wean themselves off, and still more are angry at Barack Obama for having let the old order go. Or, in the case of Libya, they owe Washington gratitude for having helped removed their dictator even as they still resent the US. But none of the region's players, big or small, are likely to wait for America to take action first before tackling the region's problems.
The first major test of this may very well be the Palestinian bid for statehood at the UN. It is not that it is expected to change much for the beleaguered Palestinians, or even that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a diplomatic priority for anyone anymore. It is that the coming US veto at the Security Council - or even if that is averted, the humiliation of Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas - could stir up once again the deep distrust of Washington in Arab public opinion, which now matters again.
Regional powers are attuned to this: consider the warning Prince Turki bin Faisal, a former Saudi intelligence chief and occasional messenger to Washington, gave in a New York Times op-ed last week. In case of a US veto, he wrote, "Saudi Arabia would no longer be able to co-operate with America in the same way it historically has," because "Saudi leaders would be forced by domestic and regional pressures to adopt a far more independent and assertive foreign policy."
They may be spearheading the counter-revolution, but the Saudis are not just a status-quo force anymore. Like other states, they are restructuring to the new reality — preventing change in Bahrain, but backing it in Libya and, perhaps soon, in Syria. Having moved on from their anger at the Obama administration's abandonment of Ben Ali and Mubarak, they realise that for things to remain the same (for them), everything must change.
Two weeks ago, at a meeting of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Geneva that I attended, Prince Turki outlined his proposal to deal with the region's most urgent issues through two broad arcs: reviving the Arab Peace Initiative (ie a comprehensive Israeli-Arab peace rather than a separate Israeli-Palestinian one) and the decades-old idea of a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction (ie tackling the Israeli and Iranian nuclear issues together, rather than ignoring the former and focusing on the latter.) The proposal was interesting not so much on its details as what it implied: a much more multilaterally-driven agenda for Middle East diplomacy. No more waiting for Washington to act first.
Elsewhere, the edifice of the Washington-driven Middle East is collapsing. The Camp David framework for US-Egypt-Israel relations has frayed dramatically, with public opinion making the old status quo untenable. Just ask the Egyptian prime minister Essam Sharaf, who echoed the opinion of most of his country's parties and presidential candidates in saying the treaty must be revised. The trick is how Egypt can play the regional role it aspires to, thus liberating itself from the Camp David shackles, while preserving an Israeli-Egyptian peace that it cherishes. Today's Egypt is too bogged down in a messy, uncertain transition to provide the answer to that question, but within a year or two the question will have to be addressed, with all the consequences this may have for the 36-yearUS-Egypt alliance. A full rupture is unlikely, but the resentful kowtowing of the Mubarak era is over.
Turkey's recent spat with Israel also points to a break with another Washington ally. It does not just have to do with Turkish-Israeli relations: it points to a more bullish role in the region's politics. Turkey may be cheered in the Arab world for its anti-Israel rhetoric (which, as its leaders say, is entirely the result of Israel's own intransigence) but it is elsewhere that its actions are more significant. Its Syria policy is in tatters and it will soon have to decide whether to act there. The resurgence of Kurdish separatism, including a terrorist attack in Ankara this week, pushes it further into northern Iraq. It is reasserting itself in the Cypriot conflict, vowing to send ships to defend Turkish Cyprus's claim to offshore oilfields.
These are just some of the initial moves in the complex Middle Eastern chessboard, but the general trend is one of a new assertiveness and independence from the US's traditional allies. It will not be cost-free, either. A restructuring of the region entails more instability. Some of it will be unavoidable, and may come at a great cost, as many fear in Syria and Yemen. In those cases, the regional powers - Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, eventually Egypt - will have to get involved and attempt to do damage limitation. So will the smaller, but wealthy and diplomatically hyperactive states like Qatar and, increasingly, the UAE. In other cases, the same actors can play a role in preventing crises, nipping them in the bud before it is too late.
There are no good guys or bad guys, no "rogue states" and "moderates" in this new Middle East. Some states may make a democratic transition, others not; progressives and reactionaries will co-exist. Some states may be failed states; then the concern will be how to quarantine them. There will be only states with various degree of influence, resources and clout.
The situation is remiscent of Europe after Napoleon's defeat at the Battle of Waterloo. Then, the Congress of Vienna set up a diplomatic process for managing crises and preventing them from leading to new European wars. There is something to be learnt here from the master diplomats of time, like Talleyrand and Metternich, who created a system, which they called the "Concert of Europe", that maintained peace for a century. This system was made up of states with a history of hostility to each other, was full of spying and intrigue, and allowed relatively weaker states like Austria to guide European diplomacy through the talent of its diplomats, while containing large, ambitious ones like France. It was not perfect, and often reactionary, but it worked, getting statesmen to sit down with one another and find solutions to the crises of a Europe going through a turbulent transformation.
The Middle East today is confusing, because each player is readjusting its policy on its own. It is like the din one hears before the performance of a symphony, when musicians tune their instruments. With so much dissonance, it may be time for a Concert of the Middle East.
Issandr El Amrani is a writer and analyst based in Cairo
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
THE BIO
Favourite book: ‘Purpose Driven Life’ by Rick Warren
Favourite travel destination: Switzerland
Hobbies: Travelling and following motivational speeches and speakers
Favourite place in UAE: Dubai Museum
Reading List
Practitioners of mindful eating recommend the following books to get you started:
Savor: Mindful Eating, Mindful Life by Thich Nhat Hanh and Dr Lilian Cheung
How to Eat by Thich Nhat Hanh
The Mindful Diet by Dr Ruth Wolever
Mindful Eating by Dr Jan Bays
How to Raise a Mindful Eaterby Maryann Jacobsen
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League quarter-final, second leg (first-leg score):
Manchester City (0) v Tottenham Hotspur (1), Wednesday, 11pm UAE
Match is on BeIN Sports
Match info:
Burnley 0
Manchester United 2
Lukaku (22', 44')
Red card: Marcus Rashford (Man United)
Man of the match: Romelu Lukaku (Manchester United)
more from Janine di Giovanni
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Selected fixtures
All times UAE
Wednesday
Poland v Portugal 10.45pm
Russia v Sweden 10.45pm
Friday
Belgium v Switzerland 10.45pm
Croatia v England 10.45pm
Saturday
Netherlands v Germany 10.45pm
Rep of Ireland v Denmark 10.45pm
Sunday
Poland v Italy 10.45pm
Monday
Spain v England 10.45pm
Tuesday
France v Germany 10.45pm
Rep of Ireland v Wales 10.45pm
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What is blockchain?
Blockchain is a form of distributed ledger technology, a digital system in which data is recorded across multiple places at the same time. Unlike traditional databases, DLTs have no central administrator or centralised data storage. They are transparent because the data is visible and, because they are automatically replicated and impossible to be tampered with, they are secure.
The main difference between blockchain and other forms of DLT is the way data is stored as ‘blocks’ – new transactions are added to the existing ‘chain’ of past transactions, hence the name ‘blockchain’. It is impossible to delete or modify information on the chain due to the replication of blocks across various locations.
Blockchain is mostly associated with cryptocurrency Bitcoin. Due to the inability to tamper with transactions, advocates say this makes the currency more secure and safer than traditional systems. It is maintained by a network of people referred to as ‘miners’, who receive rewards for solving complex mathematical equations that enable transactions to go through.
However, one of the major problems that has come to light has been the presence of illicit material buried in the Bitcoin blockchain, linking it to the dark web.
Other blockchain platforms can offer things like smart contracts, which are automatically implemented when specific conditions from all interested parties are reached, cutting the time involved and the risk of mistakes. Another use could be storing medical records, as patients can be confident their information cannot be changed. The technology can also be used in supply chains, voting and has the potential to used for storing property records.
88 Video's most popular rentals
Avengers 3: Infinity War: an American superhero film released in 2018 and based on the Marvel Comics story.
Sholay: a 1975 Indian action-adventure film. It follows the adventures of two criminals hired by police to catch a vagabond. The film was panned on release but is now considered a classic.
Lucifer: is a 2019 Malayalam-language action film. It dives into the gritty world of Kerala’s politics and has become one of the highest-grossing Malayalam films of all time.
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
PROFILE OF STARZPLAY
Date started: 2014
Founders: Maaz Sheikh, Danny Bates
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment/Streaming Video On Demand
Number of employees: 125
Investors/Investment amount: $125 million. Major investors include Starz/Lionsgate, State Street, SEQ and Delta Partners
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Details
Through Her Lens: The stories behind the photography of Eva Sereny
Forewords by Jacqueline Bisset and Charlotte Rampling, ACC Art Books
How to help
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