The cost-of-living crisis in Britain and Europe deepened on Friday after Russia’s attack on Ukraine over fears inflation will surge even higher and the price of food, energy and fuel will rise sharply.
With western nations imposing tough sanctions to damage Russia’s economy and military assault, the conflict and the associated economic fallout will reverberate around the world.
In Britain, which was already grappling with a cost-of-living squeeze and inflation of 5.5 per cent in January, consumer confidence dropped in February by the most since coronavirus lockdown restrictions were announced in March 2020 as the decline in living standards gained traction.
GfK’s monthly consumer confidence index fell to minus 26 in February from minus 19, while its index-tracking sentiment towards personal finances for the coming year tumbled to its lowest ebb since April 2020.
“There’s clear anxiety in these findings as many consumers worry about balancing the household books at the end of the month without going further into debt,” said Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK.
In the eurozone, a sentiment gauge by the European Commission rose to 114.0 in February from 112.7 the previous month, more than expected. However, the data was collected only until February 18 and does not reflect the latest attacks.
“The crisis in Ukraine is set to hit sentiment in the near-term, with rises in energy prices denting real incomes for consumers,” said Rory Fennessy, economist at Oxford Economics.
Britain’s households were already bracing in April, when energy bills are expected to rise by up to 54 per cent after the UK energy regulator Ofgem raised the price cap – the maximum suppliers are allowed to charge in a year – by £693.
Meanwhile, the government is pushing ahead with rises to National Insurance contributions from April – with workers set to pay an extra 1.25 per cent a year – and the cumulative effect is set to lead to households being £1,200 a year worse off from April.
The Ukraine crisis will exacerbate the situation with the potential of a third interest rate rise from the Bank of England in March meaning consumers face “a perfect storm of worries”, Mr Staton said.
Inflation could hit 8.2% within weeks
Britain’s inflation rate rose to an annual rate of 5.5 per cent in January, taking prices to a 30-year high, with the Bank of England expecting inflation to hit 7.25 per cent in April – more than triple its 2 per cent target – when the energy bill surge and higher taxes take effect.
However, the Ukraine crisis amplifies this outlook with some analysts expecting inflation to peak at 8.2 per cent driven by rising food, energy and fuel prices.
Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that inflation figure could be hit within weeks if yesterday’s rises were sustained, before falling back to 6.5 per cent by the end of the year.
In the eurozone, consumer price inflation reached 5.1 per cent in January, with energy prices by far the largest contributor to this rise, increasing by almost 30 per cent compared with January 2021.
Economists at Oxford Economics said the obvious way the Russia-Ukraine conflict will affect economies would be through higher oil, gas and some non-energy commodities, with wheat and corn prices set to push up agricultural food prices, which are already about 30 per cent higher than a year ago.
Taking all these economic shocks into consideration, Oxford Economics expects average annual headline inflation in the eurozone to hit 4.6 per cent this year and 1.3 per cent in 2023.
Supermarket shopping will become even pricier
Consumers are already grappling with soaring food costs after drought and labour shortages slashed harvests around the world at a time of rising demand.
Now the prices of grain and cooking oil have taken another leap upwards after the invasion of Ukraine, a country which has been nicknamed "the breadbasket of Europe".
Ukraine and Russia together account for more than a quarter of the global trade in wheat, as well as a fifth of corn sales. Port and railway closures in Ukraine have already started to throw the nation’s commodity exports into chaos.
Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the UK Foreign Affairs Committee, said: "10 per cent of the world’s wheat is grown in Ukraine and the idea that this year’s is going to be a good crop, I’m afraid, is for the birds.
"This is absolutely one of those moments where we’re going to see the cost-of-living crisis driven by war."
It is not only the threats to grain shipments that could drive inflation. Russia is also a major low-cost exporter of nearly every kind of fertiliser vital to the food supply chain. If global trade gets disrupted, it will mean higher costs for farmers across the globe, and in turn, rising food inflation.
Prices are already surging for everything from wheat to corn to soybeans. A war that would stop Ukrainian grain exports would likely drive wheat prices up by another 30 per cent, and corn by 20 per cent, say analysts at Rabobank.
“Between them, Russia and Ukraine export a quarter of the world’s wheat, and Ukraine is a major corn exporter," said Thomas Pugh, an economist at RSM UK.
"This would put further upward pressure on food prices, which were already rising by four per cent year on year in December. All this will exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis and depress GDP growth.”
High energy bills will continue to rise
Britain’s energy bills are already eye-wateringly high after the fallout from the pandemic, but the conflict has driven the oil price to its highest level in more than seven years.
Russia supplies 10 per cent of the world's oil and a third of Europe's gas, with significant volumes heading to the continent through Ukraine, mainly to countries such as Austria, Italy and Slovakia, as well Germany and Poland.
While the UK sources only 6 per cent of its crude oil and 5 per cent of its gas from Russia, the EU is more exposed with almost half of its gas supply coming from Russia, and a 62 per cent jump in prices on Thursday testified to jitters around what the immediate future will bring.
Gas prices may have retreated on Friday and while analysts say Russia is unlikely to block supplies to Europe for a prolonged period, it is something that cannot be ruled out.
If Russian supplies to Europe were completely cut off, then prices could rise so high that it could trigger energy rationing.
As a result, annual household energy bills in the UK could rise to £3,000 by October, says Investec analyst Martin Young, pushing more families into fuel poverty and more businesses to breaking point.
This is £1,000 higher than the figure expected in April of slightly less than £2,000 when the price cap changes.
The increase could be “devastating” for British households, said Mr Young, some of which will face a “eat or heat dilemma”.
UK petrol prices set to surge past £1.70 a litre
Russia’s military escalation has sent oil prices above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014, with Brent Crude, the international benchmark, hitting $106 on Friday.
The cost of fuel surged to record highs as consumers feel the heat from surging wholesale oil prices.
But analysts have given a warning of more price increases, with those on lower incomes "having to make difficult choices as a result of needing to put fuel in their cars", said Simon Williams at UK motoring organisation RAC.
Petrol hit £1.49 a litre on Thursday – inching ever closer to the £1.50 milestone – with expectation of £1.70 or higher to come very soon.
If the situation in Ukraine continued "you can forget about petrol at £1.70 a litre ... it will be significantly higher", he said.
The crisis could also affect the car market at a time when the industry is still reeling from a global chip shortage and pandemic-induced supply chain challenges.
Russia is one of the biggest suppliers of nickel, used in lithium-iron batteries, and palladium, which is used in catalytic converters.
If it decides to cut off the supply of these metals in retaliation to sanctions, car manufacturers’ supply woes would increase with companies seeking out alternative options and prices likely to rise in response.
Expect travel disruption and higher flight prices
With oil prices going up, airlines may decide to pass on the rise in the cost of aviation fuel to customers, causing flight prices to rise.
The travel industry is still recovering from the hit to revenue from the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to planes being grounded at the start of the crisis and passenger demand has dampened since.
The UK on Thursday said it was banning Russian planes from its airspace in retaliation for the unprovoked invasion, with Moscow responding on Friday by banning all UK-linked planes, including transiting flights, from its airspace.
IAG, owner of British Airways and Spanish airline Iberia, said on Friday it was rerouting aircraft to avoid flying over Russian airspace.
However, the group, which expects to turn a profit from the second quarter after posting a smaller-than-expected, adjusted operating loss for 2021 of €2.97 billion, said it did not expect a material impact from what it called "recent geopolitical developments", and is “monitoring” the situation.
Investors should brace for more turbulence
While global stocks plunged on Thursday as investors absorbed the news of the Russian invasion, the mood was slightly calmer on Friday.
European stocks rose as investors welcomed co-ordinated western sanctions against Russia that targeted its banks but left its energy sector largely untouched, while the FTSE100 rose 1.2 per cent after plunging 3.9 per cent on Thursday, its worst day since the summer of 2020.
The jump in stocks was modest, however, and markets remained down significantly from levels at the start of the week.
"Markets seem to be reducing tail risks. Additional sanctions announced against Russia matter to Russia, but the domestic Russian economy does not matter much to the global economy (and energy supplies are still flowing)," said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Citigroup is telling investors to "buy the dip” as it does not see the war-fuelled market activity transforming into a sell-off.
Sterling on the other hand is headed for its biggest weekly drop in six months as investors turn to safe-have currencies such as the US dollar and yen.
The British pound stabilised on Friday, recovering from a two-month low hit in the previous session after investors rushed into safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and the US dollar.
Against the dollar, the pound steadied at $1.3376 after falling to $1.3302 on Thursday, while against the euro, the pound edged 0.2 per cent higher to 83.52 pence.
Further interest rate rises may be delayed
The BoE has raised its benchmark rate twice since December and financial markets had been expecting it to increase the interest rate again to 0.75 per cent in March, despite the central bank forecasting a slowdown in the economy.
However, the Ukraine tension may change that picture because it will deepen the cost-of-living crisis around the world, stunting economic growth in the process – a problem which will be worsened by higher interest rates.
In the eurozone, European Central Bank policymakers might be more cautious at their next meeting on March 10, despite a consensus to normalise policy before the conflict broke out.
ECB officials have given a warning that the shock of war hanging over the continent has clouded the outlook, with chief economist Philip Lane saying the conflict could reduce the economic bloc’s output by 0.3 per cent to 0.4 per cent this year.
Global Fungi Facts
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
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• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
More on Yemen's civil war
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
Western Region Asia Cup T20 Qualifier
Sun Feb 23 – Thu Feb 27, Al Amerat, Oman
The two finalists advance to the Asia qualifier in Malaysia in August
Group A
Bahrain, Maldives, Oman, Qatar
Group B
UAE, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia
UAE group fixtures
Sunday Feb 23, 9.30am, v Iran
Monday Feb 25, 1pm, v Kuwait
Tuesday Feb 26, 9.30am, v Saudi
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza, Rohan Mustafa, Alishan Sharafu, Ansh Tandon, Vriitya Aravind, Junaid Siddique, Waheed Ahmed, Karthik Meiyappan, Basil Hameed, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Ayaz, Zahoor Khan, Chirag Suri, Sultan Ahmed
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
THE RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: Alnawar, Connor Beasley (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: Raniah, Noel Garbutt, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh90,000 2,200m
Winner: Saarookh, Richard Mullen, Ana Mendez
6.30pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan Jewel Crown (PA) Rated Conditions Dh125,000 1,600m
Winner: RB Torch, Tadhg O’Shea, Eric Lemartinel
7pm: Al Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: MH Wari, Antonio Fresu, Elise Jeane
7.30pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,600m
Winner: Mailshot, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
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The BIO:
He became the first Emirati to climb Mount Everest in 2011, from the south section in Nepal
He ascended Mount Everest the next year from the more treacherous north Tibetan side
By 2015, he had completed the Explorers Grand Slam
Last year, he conquered K2, the world’s second-highest mountain located on the Pakistan-Chinese border
He carries dried camel meat, dried dates and a wheat mixture for the final summit push
His new goal is to climb 14 peaks that are more than 8,000 metres above sea level
MEDIEVIL%20(1998)
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Leaderboard
63 - Mike Lorenzo-Vera (FRA)
64 - Rory McIlroy (NIR)
66 - Jon Rahm (ESP)
67 - Tom Lewis (ENG), Tommy Fleetwood (ENG)
68 - Rafael Cabrera-Bello (ESP), Marcus Kinhult (SWE)
69 - Justin Rose (ENG), Thomas Detry (BEL), Francesco Molinari (ITA), Danny Willett (ENG), Li Haotong (CHN), Matthias Schwab (AUT)
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
JOKE'S%20ON%20YOU
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.8-litre%204-cyl%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E190hp%20at%205%2C200rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20320Nm%20from%201%2C800-5%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeven-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.7L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh111%2C195%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Record breaker
- The most total field goals made in NBA history, as well as the most consecutive games scoring 10 or more points
- The only player in NBA history to reach 10,000 rebounds and 10,000 assists
- Four-time regular season MVP and four-time NBA Finals MVP
- Six-time NBA All-Defensive selection. Rookie of the Year in 2004
- The most All-NBA selections with 21 in a row, including a record 13 first team selections
- The most consecutive All-Star selections with 21
- The only player to play alongside his son; Bronny James was chosen by the Lakers in the 2024 NBA draft
The%20specs
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Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.
ASSASSIN'S%20CREED%20MIRAGE
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Inside%20Out%202
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New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
Dhadak
Director: Shashank Khaitan
Starring: Janhvi Kapoor, Ishaan Khattar, Ashutosh Rana
Stars: 3
The%20specs
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Gifts exchanged
- King Charles - replica of President Eisenhower Sword
- Queen Camilla - Tiffany & Co vintage 18-carat gold, diamond and ruby flower brooch
- Donald Trump - hand-bound leather book with Declaration of Independence
- Melania Trump - personalised Anya Hindmarch handbag
COPA DEL REY
Semi-final, first leg
Barcelona 1 (Malcom 57')
Real Madrid (Vazquez 6')
Second leg, February 27
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Scorline
Iraq 1-0 UAE
Iraq Hussein 28’
Tightening the screw on rogue recruiters
The UAE overhauled the procedure to recruit housemaids and domestic workers with a law in 2017 to protect low-income labour from being exploited.
Only recruitment companies authorised by the government are permitted as part of Tadbeer, a network of labour ministry-regulated centres.
A contract must be drawn up for domestic workers, the wages and job offer clearly stating the nature of work.
The contract stating the wages, work entailed and accommodation must be sent to the employee in their home country before they depart for the UAE.
The contract will be signed by the employer and employee when the domestic worker arrives in the UAE.
Only recruitment agencies registered with the ministry can undertake recruitment and employment applications for domestic workers.
Penalties for illegal recruitment in the UAE include fines of up to Dh100,000 and imprisonment
But agents not authorised by the government sidestep the law by illegally getting women into the country on visit visas.
Ain Dubai in numbers
126: The length in metres of the legs supporting the structure
1 football pitch: The length of each permanent spoke is longer than a professional soccer pitch
16 A380 Airbuses: The equivalent weight of the wheel rim.
9,000 tonnes: The amount of steel used to construct the project.
5 tonnes: The weight of each permanent spoke that is holding the wheel rim in place
192: The amount of cable wires used to create the wheel. They measure a distance of 2,4000km in total, the equivalent of the distance between Dubai and Cairo.
10 tips for entry-level job seekers
- Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
- Keep track of the job trends in your sector through the news. Apply for job alerts at your dream organisations and the types of jobs you want – LinkedIn uses AI to share similar relevant jobs based on your selections.
- Double check that you’ve highlighted relevant skills on your resume and LinkedIn profile.
- For most entry-level jobs, your resume will first be filtered by an applicant tracking system for keywords. Look closely at the description of the job you are applying for and mirror the language as much as possible (while being honest and accurate about your skills and experience).
- Keep your CV professional and in a simple format – make sure you tailor your cover letter and application to the company and role.
- Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
- Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
- Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
- Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
- Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.
Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz
Abaya trends
The utilitarian robe held dear by Arab women is undergoing a change that reveals it as an elegant and graceful garment available in a range of colours and fabrics, while retaining its traditional appeal.
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
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Normcore explained
Something of a fashion anomaly, normcore is essentially a celebration of the unremarkable. The term was first popularised by an article in New York magazine in 2014 and has been dubbed “ugly”, “bland’ and "anti-style" by fashion writers. It’s hallmarks are comfort, a lack of pretentiousness and neutrality – it is a trend for those who would rather not stand out from the crowd. For the most part, the style is unisex, favouring loose silhouettes, thrift-shop threads, baseball caps and boyish trainers. It is important to note that normcore is not synonymous with cheapness or low quality; there are high-fashion brands, including Parisian label Vetements, that specialise in this style. Embraced by fashion-forward street-style stars around the globe, it’s uptake in the UAE has been relatively slow.
Sanju
Produced: Vidhu Vinod Chopra, Rajkumar Hirani
Director: Rajkumar Hirani
Cast: Ranbir Kapoor, Vicky Kaushal, Paresh Rawal, Anushka Sharma, Manish’s Koirala, Dia Mirza, Sonam Kapoor, Jim Sarbh, Boman Irani
Rating: 3.5 stars
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More on Turkey's Syria offence
Frankenstein in Baghdad
Ahmed Saadawi
Penguin Press
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
