Britain’s short-term economic growth outlook remains strong, but it faces inflation pressures, the threat of escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and new coronavirus waves, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday, as it commended the government for its handling of the pandemic last year.
Despite an expected slowdown in the first quarter of this year because of the Omicron variant and the restrictions to tackle it, the UK economy is expected to grow by 4.7 per cent in 2022, with inflation peaking at 7 per cent in the spring, according to the IMF’s 2021 Article IV Consultation.
Inflation is then expected to return to the Bank of England’s target level of 2 per cent by the second quarter of 2024, boosted by declining global energy prices, more robust supply chains, and tighter demand management policies.
“Risks are considerable in the period ahead. There is a risk of higher inflation in the near term, but two to three years out, the risk shifts to lower growth – as policy interventions pull inflation back,” the IMF said.
“However, the major risk stems from new Covid-19 waves and spillovers from tensions in Eastern Europe.”
In the medium-term, growth is projected to ease to about 1.5 per cent, the IMF said, with real GDP settling about 2 to 2.5 per cent below its pre-pandemic trend, held back by investment shortfalls in 2020–2021 and a less-than-full recovery of labour force participation.
Britain’s economy was ravaged by the fallout from the pandemic in 2020, with output contracting 9.4 per cent in 2020 – the biggest drop since 1919 when there was demobilisation after the First World War.
However, the UK enjoyed a stronger recovery than its peers in the G7 in 2021, rebounding 7.5 per cent in 2021, according to the Office for National Statistics, its strongest year of growth since the Second World War, after pandemic restrictions were eased across the country.
The surge in output was bolstered by billions of pounds of government aid to support jobs and businesses through the crisis. Its economy managed to grow by 1 per cent in the last three months of the year when Omicron struck.
The recovery in 2021 has proceeded faster than expected, the IMF said. Its directors attributed that to the government’s strong policy measures and rapid vaccination campaign that helped contain the health, economic, and financial impact of the pandemic.
As a result, the IMF estimates growth will reach 7.2 per cent in 2021 thanks to the “continued policy support and rapid vaccination”.
However, it raised the alarm over inflation rising to 5.4 per cent in December amid “strained global supply chains, rising traded goods and energy prices, and tightened labour markets”.
The IMF welcomed the Bank of England’s recent policy rate increases and the move to withdraw the exceptional monetary support provided during 2020–2021 to counter growing inflation pressures.
While the Washington-based lender supported gradual fiscal tightening and said policies should retain an important role in responding to large macroeconomic shocks, it said well targeted support is needed to protect households from the sharply rising cost of living.
Britain’s cost-of-living crisis is now being felt by three out of four adults, according to the ONS, as the country braces for a further squeeze in April when higher energy bills and taxation take effect.
While the near-term outlook remains strong, the IMF stressed that it is subject to significant risks, including emerging price pressures, medium-term scarring and coronavirus uncertainties.
The UK's Build Back Better: Our Plan for Growth agenda as it seeks structural transformation for green, inclusive growth, was also praised by the IMF, which welcomed the country’s “ambitious” Net Zero Strategy and encouraged the authorities to hone it as necessary to reach their targets.
The UK’s “well-functioning financial stability framework with resilient banks and insurers” was also commended for helping to support the safety and soundness of the core part of the UK financial system through the strains of Brexit and the Covid-19 shock.
However, data and information gaps exist concerning non-bank financial institutions and their cross-border operations, the IMF said, with debtors, creditors, and market intermediaries facing interlinked risks from adverse macrofinancial effects of a prolonged pandemic, lingering post-Brexit uncertainties on financial services, to rapidly shifting financial conditions.
Britain will unlock "tens of billions of pounds" of insurance sector capital that should boost the economy through infrastructure investment, financial services minister John Glen said on Monday.
The six-year-old Solvency II capital requirements were inherited from the European Union when Britain left the bloc's orbit at the end of 2020.
The long-flagged reform is seen by insurers and Brexit supporters as an early test of how Britain can exploit its freedom to write its own financial regulations, and the government is keen to show tangible benefits from leaving the EU.
“Post-Brexit regulatory and related institutional reforms that are now being considered offer the opportunity to reaffirm the primacy of the authorities' objective of financial stability,” the IMF said.
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
FIVE%20TRENDS%20THAT%20WILL%20SHAPE%20UAE%20BANKING
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20The%20digitisation%20of%20financial%20services%20will%20continue%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Managing%20and%20using%20data%20effectively%20will%20become%20a%20competitive%20advantage%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Digitisation%20will%20require%20continued%20adjustment%20of%20operating%20models%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Banks%20will%20expand%20their%20role%20in%20the%20customer%20life%20through%20ecosystems%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20The%20structure%20of%20the%20sector%20will%20change%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Scoreline
Abu Dhabi Harlequins 17
Jebel Ali Dragons 20
Harlequins Tries: Kinivilliame, Stevenson; Cons: Stevenson 2; Pen: Stevenson
Dragons Tries: Naisau, Fourie; Cons: Love 2; Pens: Love 2
If%20you%20go
%3Cp%3E%0DThere%20are%20regular%20flights%20from%20Dubai%20to%20Addis%20Ababa%20with%20Ethiopian%20Airlines%20with%20return%20fares%20from%20Dh1%2C700.%20Nashulai%20Journeys%20offers%20tailormade%20and%20ready%20made%20trips%20in%20Africa%20while%20Tesfa%20Tours%20has%20a%20number%20of%20different%20community%20trekking%20tours%20throughout%20northern%20Ethiopia.%20%20The%20Ben%20Abeba%20Lodge%20has%20rooms%20from%20Dh228%2C%20and%20champions%20a%20programme%20of%20re-forestation%20in%20the%20surrounding%20area.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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1.
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United States
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2.
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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Scotland's team:
15-Sean Maitland, 14-Darcy Graham, 13-Nick Grigg, 12-Sam Johnson, 11-Byron McGuigan, 10-Finn Russell, 9-Ali Price, 8-Magnus Bradbury, 7-Hamish Watson, 6-Sam Skinner, 5-Grant Gilchrist, 4-Ben Toolis, 3-Willem Nel, 2-Stuart McInally (captain), 1-Allan Dell
Replacements: 16-Fraser Brown, 17-Gordon Reid, 18-Simon Berghan, 19-Jonny Gray, 20-Josh Strauss, 21-Greig Laidlaw, 22-Adam Hastings, 23-Chris Harris
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
'C'mon C'mon'
Director:Mike Mills
Stars:Joaquin Phoenix, Gaby Hoffmann, Woody Norman
Rating: 4/5
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
if you go
The flights
Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.
The hotel
Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.
The tour
Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg
Monster
Directed by: Anthony Mandler
Starring: Kelvin Harrison Jr., John David Washington
3/5
French business
France has organised a delegation of leading businesses to travel to Syria. The group was led by French shipping giant CMA CGM, which struck a 30-year contract in May with the Syrian government to develop and run Latakia port. Also present were water and waste management company Suez, defence multinational Thales, and Ellipse Group, which is currently looking into rehabilitating Syrian hospitals.
More from Neighbourhood Watch
RESULTS
6.30pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 Group One (PA) US$65,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner RB Money To Burn, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer).
7.05pm Handicap (TB) $175,000 (Turf) 1,200m
Winner Ekhtiyaar, Jim Crowley, Doug Watson.
7.40pm UAE 2000 Guineas Trial Conditions (TB) $100,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner Commanding, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
8.15pm Singspiel Stakes Group Two (TB) $250,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner Benbatl, Christophe Soumillon, Saeed bin Suroor.
8.50pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner Zakouski, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
9.25pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 Group Two (TB) $350,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner Kimbear, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
10pm Dubai Trophy Conditions (TB) $100,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner Platinum Star, Christophe Soumillon, Saeed bin Suroor.
10.35pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner Key Victory, James Doyle, Charlie Appleby.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
FORSPOKEN
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Diablo%20IV
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Baldur's%20Gate%203
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Marvel's%20Spider-Man%202
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Assassin's%20Creed%20Mirage
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Ubisoft%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Ubisoft%0D%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20PC%2C%20PS5%2C%20XSX%2C%20Amazon%20Luna%0D%3Cbr%3ERelease%20date%3A%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Starfield
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Bethesda%20Game%20Studios%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Bethesda%20Softworks%0D%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20PC%2C%20Xbox%0D%3Cbr%3ERelease%20date%3A%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
THE SPECS
Engine: Four-cylinder 2.5-litre
Transmission: Seven-speed auto
Power: 165hp
Torque: 241Nm
Price: Dh99,900 to Dh134,000
On sale: now
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Record breaker
- The most total field goals made in NBA history, as well as the most consecutive games scoring 10 or more points
- The only player in NBA history to reach 10,000 rebounds and 10,000 assists
- Four-time regular season MVP and four-time NBA Finals MVP
- Six-time NBA All-Defensive selection. Rookie of the Year in 2004
- The most All-NBA selections with 21 in a row, including a record 13 first team selections
- The most consecutive All-Star selections with 21
- The only player to play alongside his son; Bronny James was chosen by the Lakers in the 2024 NBA draft
The specs
Engine: 1.6-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 217hp at 5,750rpm
Torque: 300Nm at 1,900rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh130,000
On sale: now
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
The%20specs
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SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPHONE%2014
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VEZEETA PROFILE
Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
Essentials
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct from the UAE to Geneva from Dh2,845 return, including taxes. The flight takes 6 hours.
The package
Clinique La Prairie offers a variety of programmes. A six-night Master Detox costs from 14,900 Swiss francs (Dh57,655), including all food, accommodation and a set schedule of medical consultations and spa treatments.
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
Points Classification after Stage 1
1. Geraint Thomas (Britain / Team Sky) 20
2. Stefan Kueng (Switzerland / BMC Racing) 17
3. Vasil Kiryienka (Belarus / Team Sky) 15
4. Tony Martin (Germany / Katusha) 13
5. Matteo Trentin (Italy / Quick-Step) 11
6. Chris Froome (Britain / Team Sky) 10
7. Jos van Emden (Netherlands / LottoNL) 9
8. Michal Kwiatkowski (Poland / Team Sky) 8
9. Marcel Kittel (Germany / Quick-Step) 7
10. Edvald Boasson Hagen (Norway / Dimension Data) 6
THE%C2%A0SPECS
%3Cp%3EEngine%3A%204-cylinder%202.5-litre%20%2F%202-litre%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20188hp%20%2F%20248hp%0D%3Cbr%3ETorque%3A%20244Nm%20%2F%20370Nm%0D%3Cbr%3ETransmission%3A%207-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3EOn%20sale%3A%20now%0D%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh110%2C000%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Lowdown
Kesari
Rating: 2.5/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Anubhav Singh
Cast: Akshay Kumar, Parineeti Chopra
The specs: 2018 Chevrolet Equinox
Price, base / as tested: Dh76,900 / Dh110,900
Engine: 2.0L, turbocharged in-line four-cylinder
Gearbox: Nine-speed automatic
Power: 252hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: Torque: 352Nm @ 2,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.5L / 100km
The BIO:
He became the first Emirati to climb Mount Everest in 2011, from the south section in Nepal
He ascended Mount Everest the next year from the more treacherous north Tibetan side
By 2015, he had completed the Explorers Grand Slam
Last year, he conquered K2, the world’s second-highest mountain located on the Pakistan-Chinese border
He carries dried camel meat, dried dates and a wheat mixture for the final summit push
His new goal is to climb 14 peaks that are more than 8,000 metres above sea level
How%20champions%20are%20made
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