Estate agents Knight Frank have revealed that property prices in prime outer London will grow by about 4 per cent over the rest of 2021, double the rate of prices in prime central London and a development that is changing the balance of the city's market.
The trend has been driven largely by the domestic market but buyers from the Middle East are also contributing to the shift away from central London, according to the analysts.
The National spoke to Stuart Leslie, international sales and marketing director at property developer Barratt London, to discuss the prime expansion and how the changing habits of Middle East buyers are shaping the capital's property scene.
1. Investor interest is returning to London property
Interest from Barratt's Middle Eastern clients in second-tier UK cities such as Manchester and Birmingham increased by 15 per cent between January 2020 and January 2021.
Since then enquiries have fallen 12 per cent, whereas enquiries for property in outer London – zones three to five of the London Underground map – are up 27 per cent.
Mr Leslie says it shows Middle East confidence is returning to the capital and that investment in second-tier cities was regarded as an insurance policy while the pandemic raged.
“[Investors and family offices] tell me they didn't know what the London market was going to do and so were considering second-tier cities … but London has proven so resilient and they know every London suburb is bigger than every second-tier city.”
Mr Leslie describes the sentiment as a reversion to the “tried and tested” and a token of the capital’s perennial appeal, whether for its arts and culture, commerce, education or leisure.
“There’s so much going on here, particularly the infrastructure improvements,” he says, calling the Nine Elms tube station that opened last week one of the “biggest infrastructure changes that we've seen across the country for a long time”.
2. The rise of Zoom property purchases
Before much of the Gulf was placed on the UK's amber list for travel, Middle Eastern investors had to rely on viewing rooms online via Zoom, instead of seeing them in "the fabric".
The barrier hasn’t deterred transacting, however. Video viewings account for 84 per cent of Middle Eastern purchases, up from 3 per cent 12 months ago, Mr Leslie says.
It’s a trend he foresees continuing for at least another six to 12 months and believes it is driven by a “fear of missing out”.
“[Middle Eastern] investors are seeing the markets are continuing to grow,” he says.
“The predictions from all the agents are very positive … and [the investors] didn't want to miss out on that opportunity any longer.
“So that's why we're starting to see some family office investments being done by video or a representative in the UK.”
3. Middle Eastern investors buying multiple properties
“A trend that we're seeing definitely is investors who would normally drop £2 million ($2.73m) or £3m on a property in central London are now purchasing multiple properties in zones three to five,” says Mr Leslie.
Barratt London’s sales ledger is testament to the pattern: 12 multiple property purchases in the last six months from Middle Eastern family offices, compared with one in the 12 months before.
The investors are looking at where the emerging markets are, and it’s really driven by supply and demand
Between six and 10 apartments is the average number per transaction with purchasers seeking strong price growth and a solid rental market. Typical purchase values are between £460,000 and £600,000.
“While the stamp duty holiday no doubt attracted investors to lower value property, we have transacted two of these multiple property sales in the last month,” says Mr Leslie.
“We are currently working with eight family offices from the Middle East, which all own property in London already but are now seeking the best returns on their capital.
“The investors are looking at where the emerging markets are, and it’s really driven by supply and demand so we're building regeneration projects on the outskirts of London.”
These regeneration projects, such as Upton Gardens and Hendon Waterside, have delivered exceptionally high price growth: 84 per cent in the last five years.
The map below shows locations for Barratt's developments in relation to where they lie on a map of the London Underground.
4. Owner-occupiers moving to London’s outer ring
The move away from the centre of London isn’t solely driven by investors; owner-occupiers are looking outward, too, motivated by better value for money and space, but with the convenience of London still 20 to 30 minutes away.
Barratt’s portfolio in north-west London has seen an 11 per cent increase in owner-occupier enquiries from the Middle East.
“[For Middle East markets] there’s always going to be a family home in west London,” says Mr Leslie.
“But the younger generation of Middle East homebuyers are now looking to the north-west corridor out from Paddington, out towards Mill Hill, that sort of area.
“You tend to get a little bit more value for money, but it's also ... a little bit more gentrified, almost country living.”
While owner-occupiers are moving up, many investors are moving east.
Barratt has recorded a significant increase in investor enquiries for its Wembley development – 10 Watkin Road – only a few hundred metres from Wembley Stadium.
5. Middle East buyers placing more emphasis on value
The shift from luxury to value is the common thread running through all the trends.
“[The Middle East market] is not prioritising things like concierges, swimming pools, gyms or lounges any more,” says Mr Leslie.
“They're looking at the different products that are available in the market and saying: ‘Well, no, we don't want to pay eight pounds per square foot on service charge, we're not using the swimming pool, we're not using these facilities.’
“So they're a bit more considered in their investments whereas before it was very much: ‘We want the best of the best and all the bells and whistles'.”
The desire for the appurtenances of luxury wasn’t solely a one-way phenomena, says Mr Leslie, citing how the development industry in London has also grown out of its obsession with the fripperies.
“There was a trend … where everybody just put in swimming pools and fancy concierges and business lounges and all the rest of it.
“And it's not like when you go to the airport. It's nice to be in a lounge but would you not go on the flight because there's not a lounge? Well, of course you would still go on the plane."
Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
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AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street
The seven points are:
Shakhbout bin Sultan Street
Dhafeer Street
Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)
Salama bint Butti Street
Al Dhafra Street
Rabdan Street
Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
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MORE ON INTERNATIONAL JUSTICE
How to vote in the UAE
1) Download your ballot https://www.fvap.gov/
2) Take it to the US Embassy
3) Deadline is October 15
4) The embassy will ensure all ballots reach the US in time for the November 3 poll
8 UAE companies helping families reduce their carbon footprint
Greenheart Organic Farms
This Dubai company was one of the country’s first organic farms, set up in 2012, and it now delivers a wide array of fruits and vegetables grown regionally or in the UAE, as well as other grocery items, to both Dubai and Abu Dhabi doorsteps.
www.greenheartuae.com
Modibodi
Founded in Australia, Modibodi is now in the UAE with waste-free, reusable underwear that eliminates the litter created by a woman’s monthly cycle, which adds up to approximately 136kgs of sanitary waste over a lifetime.
www.modibodi.ae
The Good Karma Co
From brushes made of plant fibres to eco-friendly storage solutions, this company has planet-friendly alternatives to almost everything we need, including tin foil and toothbrushes.
www.instagram.com/thegoodkarmaco
Re:told
One Dubai boutique, Re:told, is taking second-hand garments and selling them on at a fraction of the price, helping to cut back on the hundreds of thousands of tonnes of clothes thrown into landfills each year.
www.shopretold.com
Lush
Lush provides products such as shampoo and conditioner as package-free bars with reusable tins to store.
www.mena.lush.com
Bubble Bro
Offering filtered, still and sparkling water on tap, Bubble Bro is attempting to ensure we don’t produce plastic or glass waste. Founded in 2017 by Adel Abu-Aysha, the company is on track to exceeding its target of saving one million bottles by the end of the year.
www.bubble-bro.com
Coethical
This company offers refillable, eco-friendly home cleaning and hygiene products that are all biodegradable, free of chemicals and certifiably not tested on animals.
www.instagram.com/coethical
Eggs & Soldiers
This bricks-and-mortar shop and e-store, founded by a Dubai mum-of-four, is the place to go for all manner of family products – from reusable cloth diapers to organic skincare and sustainable toys.
www.eggsnsoldiers.com
Two products to make at home
Toilet cleaner
1 cup baking soda
1 cup castile soap
10-20 drops of lemon essential oil (or another oil of your choice)
Method:
1. Mix the baking soda and castile soap until you get a nice consistency.
2. Add the essential oil to the mix.
Air Freshener
100ml water
5 drops of the essential oil of your choice (note: lavender is a nice one for this)
Method:
1. Add water and oil to spray bottle to store.
2. Shake well before use.
Ireland (15-1):
Ireland (15-1): Rob Kearney; Keith Earls, Chris Farrell, Bundee Aki, Jacob Stockdale; Jonathan Sexton, Conor Murray; Jack Conan, Sean O'Brien, Peter O'Mahony; James Ryan, Quinn Roux; Tadhg Furlong, Rory Best (capt), Cian Healy
Replacements: Sean Cronin, Dave Kilcoyne, Andrew Porter, Ultan Dillane, Josh van der Flier, John Cooney, Joey Carbery, Jordan Larmour
Coach: Joe Schmidt (NZL)
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What drives subscription retailing?
Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.
The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.
The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.
The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.
UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.
That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.
Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.
The Greatest Royal Rumble card
50-man Royal Rumble - names entered so far include Braun Strowman, Daniel Bryan, Kurt Angle, Big Show, Kane, Chris Jericho, The New Day and Elias
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WWE World Heavyweight ChampionshipAJ Styles (champion) v Shinsuke Nakamura
Intercontinental Championship Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
United States Championship Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
SmackDown Tag Team Championship The Bludgeon Brothers (champions) v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship (currently vacant) Cesaro and Sheamus v Matt Hardy and Bray Wyatt
Casket match The Undertaker v Rusev
Singles match John Cena v Triple H
Cruiserweight Championship Cedric Alexander v Kalisto
QUARTER-FINAL
Wales 20-19 France
Wales: T: Wainwright, Moriarty. Cons: Biggar (2) Pens: Biggar 2
France: T: Vahaamahina, Ollivon, Vakatawa Cons: Ntamack (2)
The specs: 2019 Cadillac XT4
Price, base: Dh145,000
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged in-line four-cylinder engine
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Power: 237hp @ 5,000rpm
Torque: 350Nm @ 1,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.7L / 100km
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A cheaper choice
Vanuatu: $130,000
Why on earth pick Vanuatu? Easy. The South Pacific country has no income tax, wealth tax, capital gains or inheritance tax. And in 2015, when it was hit by Cyclone Pam, it signed an agreement with the EU that gave it some serious passport power.
Cost: A minimum investment of $130,000 for a family of up to four, plus $25,000 in fees.
Criteria: Applicants must have a minimum net worth of $250,000. The process take six to eight weeks, after which the investor must travel to Vanuatu or Hong Kong to take the oath of allegiance. Citizenship and passport are normally provided on the same day.
Benefits: No tax, no restrictions on dual citizenship, no requirement to visit or reside to retain a passport. Visa-free access to 129 countries.
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if you go
The flights
Fly to Rome with Etihad (www.etihad.ae) or Emirates (www.emirates.com) from Dh2,480 return including taxes. The flight takes six hours. Fly from Rome to Trapani with Ryanair (www.ryanair.com) from Dh420 return including taxes. The flight takes one hour 10 minutes.
The hotels
The author recommends the following hotels for this itinerary. In Trapani, Ai Lumi (www.ailumi.it); in Marsala, Viacolvento (www.viacolventomarsala.it); and in Marsala Del Vallo, the Meliaresort Dimore Storiche (www.meliaresort.it).
Expert advice
“Join in with a group like Cycle Safe Dubai or TrainYAS, where you’ll meet like-minded people and always have support on hand.”
Stewart Howison, co-founder of Cycle Safe Dubai and owner of Revolution Cycles
“When you sweat a lot, you lose a lot of salt and other electrolytes from your body. If your electrolytes drop enough, you will be at risk of cramping. To prevent salt deficiency, simply add an electrolyte mix to your water.”
Cornelia Gloor, head of RAK Hospital’s Rehabilitation and Physiotherapy Centre
“Don’t make the mistake of thinking you can ride as fast or as far during the summer as you do in cooler weather. The heat will make you expend more energy to maintain a speed that might normally be comfortable, so pace yourself when riding during the hotter parts of the day.”
Chandrashekar Nandi, physiotherapist at Burjeel Hospital in Dubai
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder MHEV
Power: 360bhp
Torque: 500Nm
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Price: from Dh282,870
On sale: now
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Why your domicile status is important
Your UK residence status is assessed using the statutory residence test. While your residence status – ie where you live - is assessed every year, your domicile status is assessed over your lifetime.
Your domicile of origin generally comes from your parents and if your parents were not married, then it is decided by your father. Your domicile is generally the country your father considered his permanent home when you were born.
UK residents who have their permanent home ("domicile") outside the UK may not have to pay UK tax on foreign income. For example, they do not pay tax on foreign income or gains if they are less than £2,000 in the tax year and do not transfer that gain to a UK bank account.
A UK-domiciled person, however, is liable for UK tax on their worldwide income and gains when they are resident in the UK.
Results
2pm Handicap (PA) Dh85,000 1,800m
Winner AF Al Baher, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer).
2.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh75,000 1,400m
Winner Alla Mahlak, Fabrice Veron, Rashed Bouresly.
3pm Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner Davy Lamp, Adrie de Vries, Rashed Bouresly.
3.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 1,400m
Winner Ode To Autumn, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
4pm Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 1,950m
Winner Arch Gold, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
4.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh75,000 1,800m
Winner Meqdam, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
5pm Handicap (TB) Dh90,000 1,800m
Winner Native Appeal, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson.
5.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh75,000 1,400m
Winner Amani Pico, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
Results
2.30pm Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m
Winner Lamia, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.
3pm Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,000m
Winner Jap Al Afreet, Elione Chaves, Irfan Ellahi.
3.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m
Winner MH Tawag, Bernardo Pinheiro, Elise Jeanne.
4pm Handicap (TB) Dh40,000 2,000m
Winner Skygazer, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
4.30pm The Ruler of Sharjah Cup Prestige (PA) Dh250,000 1,700m
Winner AF Kal Noor, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.
5pm Sharjah Marathon (PA) Dh70,000 2,700m
Winner RB Grynade, Bernardo Pinheiro, Eric Lemartinel.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Gulf Under 19s final
Dubai College A 50-12 Dubai College B
FINAL RESULT
Sharjah Wanderers 20 Dubai Tigers 25 (After extra-time)
Wanderers
Tries: Gormley, Penalty
cons: Flaherty
Pens: Flaherty 2
Tigers
Tries: O’Donnell, Gibbons, Kelly
Cons: Caldwell 2
Pens: Caldwell, Cross
F1 drivers' standings
1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes 281
2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 247
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes 222
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull 177
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari 138
6. Max Verstappen, Red Bull 93
7. Sergio Perez, Force India 86
8. Esteban Ocon, Force India 56
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
