When will the Epstein files be released?

The end of the US government shutdown saw members of Congress return to Washington after a 43-day hiatus. It means they must now take a vote on the fate of the investigative files into Jeffrey Epstein.

House Speaker Mike Johnson has been forced to schedule a vote for next week on releasing the investigation into Epstein, who died in prison in 2019 after being charged with the sex-trafficking of minors.

Mr Johnson, a Republican, had dearly hoped to avoid bringing the matter to the floor after it emerged that President Donald Trump was among those named in the files. Mr Trump and Epstein were once friends but the President, who has not been accused of wrongdoing in the case, said he ended the friendship.

Annoyingly for Mr Johnson, he was forced into scheduling the vote under a procedure known as a “discharge petition”, in which a speaker must consider legislation if a majority of representatives call for it.

That tipping point was reached this week as the House returned to work and a new Democratic member of Congress, Adelita Grijalva, was sworn in. Her first order of business was to sign the petition, bringing it to the magic majority number of 218 backers in the 435-seat House.

Known as the Epstein Files Transparency Act, the petition is a bill that would force the Justice Department to release all files and communications related to Epstein, as well as any information about the investigation into his death in federal prison.

Epstein in 2008 had pleaded guilty to solicitation of prostitution and solicitation of a child for prostitution, and his death in 2019 quickly became a rallying cry for Maga loyalists and the right-wing media world. They insisted Epstein was murdered to shut him up about any wealthy and powerful clients he may have had.

But this year, several of the same Maga warriors who'd spent years calling for the release of the Epstein files awkwardly reversed course after it became clear their boss was named in them.

For instance, FBI Director Kash Patel and his deputy, Dan Bongino, had previously pushed Epstein conspiracies. Soon after getting into office, they said there was nothing worth releasing and it was time to move on.

The saga roared back to life on Wednesday when Democrats released a series of emails written by Epstein. One said the President had “spent hours at my house” with one of the financier's alleged victims. Another claimed Mr Trump “knew about the girls”.

If the Epstein Files Transparency Act is passed, the Department of Justice would not be allowed to redact information due to “embarrassment, reputational harm or political sensitivity, including to any government official, public figure or foreign dignitary.”

Mr Trump has sought to portray the emails' release as a “deflection” to distract America from the negative impacts of the government shutdown, and White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said the emails "proved absolutely nothing other than the fact that President Trump did nothing wrong".

Still, the House of Representatives is likely to pass the bill, given that it already has the 218 backers and more Republicans are expected to come out to support it now a vote has been approved.

But even if it passes the House, it would then need to get 60 votes in the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 seat majority. Senate majority leader John Thune has not said if he would bring the matter up for a vote.

And then, if the measure were to pass the Senate, it would face a final hurdle in the form of Mr Trump, who would presumably veto it. He has long opposed the discharge petition and claims the Democrats are focusing on the “Epstein hoax” to undermine him.

“Only a very bad, or stupid, Republican would fall into that trap,” he wrote on Truth Social on Wednesday.

That same day, the House oversight committee released about 23,000 documents from the Epstein estate, some of which cast new light on his connections. But it remains far from certain that we will ever see the full Epstein files, and clearly Mr Trump prefers to keep them from being released.

The case will continue to be a drag on his popularity and a huge distraction from his agenda, as he finds himself in a situation where he is damned if he does, and damned if he doesn't when it comes to releasing the files.