Hello from The National and welcome to the Energy This Week newsletter, our expert analysis on oil and gas, renewables and clean energy.

Oil prices gain despite big Opec+ production hike

Opec+ decided on an even bigger monthly increase in production than in recent months at its gathering on Saturday: 548,000 barrels per day extra in August. The UAE saw proportionately the largest gain in its target, which rose 3.3 per cent to 3.272 million barrels per day. Opec+ cited “a steady global economic output…low oil inventories”. Despite the prospective boost in output, oil prices gained slightly on Monday and Tuesday.

Prices dropped on Friday in expectation of an Opec+ supply boost, with Brent crude closing at $68.30 per barrel and the UAE’s Murban at $70.10, down 13 cents on the day. There were reports of planned Iran-US nuclear talks in Oslo, and Iran reaffirmed its commitment to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT). China’s apparent oil demand, 3 per cent lower than last year for the first five months, despite a stabilising economy, is a concern.

Iran mulls nuclear steps as more US oil sanctions bite

After Iran passed a law suspending co-operation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), oil prices had risen more than 1 per cent last Wednesday. But with the geopolitical risk premium largely eliminated, attention turned back to Opec+ policy, and global economic and demand indications.

Inspectors from the IAEA left Iran on Friday after Tehran suspended its co-operation. A departure of Iran from the NPT would be destabilising and potentially upset the growing promise of nuclear power as a low-carbon source of electricity and desalination, writes the executive director of the Vienna Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation.

The US issued new sanctions targeting an oil trading network, run by Iraqi-British businessman Salim Ahmed Said, accused of passing off billions of dollars’ worth of Iranian oil as Iraqi.

Houthi attacks return focus to Red Sea shipping

A UAE vessel rescued 22 crew from a ship that was on fire after being attacked, apparently by Yemen-based Houthi forces, in the Red Sea on Sunday. All aboard the Liberian-flagged bulk carrier Magic Seas were safely brought to Djibouti by the Safeen Prism container ship. But on Tuesday, three crew-members on a Greek-operated bulk carrier, the Eternity C, were killed in an attack by sea drones and speedboats near the Yemeni port of Hodeidah. The assaults mark an upsurge of Houthi actions, as well as more sophisticated tactics. This could further curb shipping of oil and gas through the narrow waterway.

Four crew members died and three are missing after a drill-ship capsized in the Gulf of Suez, the northwestern arm of the Red Sea. The vessel was part of the fleet of Saudi-based ADES, and was in the significant oil-producing area of Gebel El Zeit.

The fire at an electrical substation that brought London’s Heathrow Airport to a standstill in March could have been prevented, a review by the energy system operator has found. Moisture had been present in components but had gone “unaddressed”. The airport’s power system was also not configured to allow a quick recovery.

Energy dominance – but from Beijing, not Washington

• The US coined the phrase “energy dominance”, but it is China that is putting it into practice in clean energy – having a commanding lead in wind, solar, batteries, electric vehicles, nuclear power and critical minerals. Energy dominance can bring economic and then political dominance, and the US and Europe have squandered their early lead in clean energy.
• Leaders of the Brics group had three major things on their minds when they gathered on Sunday in Rio de Janeiro for their two-day annual summit: tariffs, regional conflict and energy instability. Of the Brics members, Russia is a key part of the Opec+ group and Brazil notionally adheres, though without production limits. Iran and the UAE are newer Brics joiners. But China and India are major oil importers who watch supply and prices carefully. Global stocks and oil markets are concerned where US tariff policy is going, after its 90-day pause expires on July 9, with Washington promising a few trade deals. The GCC will mostly be spared the impact of Donald Trump’s new tariffs, although they have an indirect impact on oil and gas prices.
• Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called for an era of climate and health justice in his speech on the final day of the Brics summit. His country hosts the Cop30 climate talks in November.
• Adnoc reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 6.6 million tonnes last year, its latest sustainability report shows. About 5 million tonnes of cuts came from using solar and nuclear power, and 1.2 million tonnes from energy efficiency. Its carbon intensity was maintained at about 7 kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent per barrel of oil produced.
• Saudi Arabia has signed $27 billion worth of investment deals with Indonesia, covering clean energy, aviation fuel, petrochemicals and mining, among other areas.

Ethiopia’s Nile dam brings electricity, political tensions

• Ethiopia has completed its Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile after 14 years of work. The $4 billion project is planned to generate 6 gigawatts of electricity, crucial for powering the East African nation of more than 120 million people. But it has roused strong opposition from Egypt and Sudan, because of worries about their water supplies.
• The Crane Clean Energy Centre may not jog many memories but, under its former name of Three Mile Island, the station in Pennsylvania was the site of the US’s worst nuclear power accident, in 1979. Now, the renamed facility is starting up again to help power AI-related data centres.

Flying taxis to speed UAE traffic

• Electric air-taxis will be able to operate in the UAE after the aviation authority approved regulations. Archer Aviation’s Midnight was tested from Abu Dhabi’s Al Bateen airport last Wednesday, and has a range of 150km with a top speed of 241kph.
• The UAE’s Ministry of Climate Change and Environment has launched a trial programme to recycle electronic devices instead of throwing them away.
• Temperatures in Germany are approaching 40°C, as Europe suffers a record heatwave. Wildfires have swept through coastal Syria, damaging much of the country’s green cover, and people are being evacuated from their homes around Latakia.