Is hot global inflation set to resurge? Widely feared consumer price index acceleration in the US, UK and elsewhere – alongside US tariffs – has many fearing a return to the 2021-2022 period. That supposedly will whack global consumers and “much needed” 2026 rate cuts.
It is time to turn down the drama. Despite some tiny upticks globally, the inflation war is over.
First, understand this: when wars end, their destruction is not magically reversed. Peace just stops new destruction. It is the same with inflation. Current prices remain well above pre-pandemic levels, frustrating many.
The US’s CPI sits 26.4 per cent above December 2019 levels. The Eurozone’s harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) is up 22.8 per cent. Canadian and Australian CPI are up 20.9 and 21.5 per cent, respectively. The UK’s is even worse, up 28.3 per cent.
CPI also understates many people’s experience. Hence, inflation angst is understandable. And fighting the last war – in this case, the recent years’ nosebleed inflation – is a natural, human response.
But prices and inflation are different. Inflation is the speed of changing prices – now 3 per cent year-on-year in America and 3.8 per cent in Britain, based on September CPI. Australia’s inflation of 3 per cent year on year in August echoes those. The Eurozone and Canada’s relatively cooler 2.2 per cent and 2.4 per cent September readings, respectively, nonetheless exceed hoped-for rates – and accelerated from August.
Current inflation pales versus recent highs. Since peaking at 9.1 per cent year-on-year in June 2022, US CPI cooled irregularly to September’s 3 per cent – above the Federal Reserve’s target (which is not based on CPI, for the record) but hardly indicating galloping prices.
The Eurozone’s 2.2 per cent year-on-year September inflation is far below October 2022’s 10.6 per cent peak and hovers around the European Central Bank’s 2 per cent target. UK, Canadian and Australian inflation trends all echo that.
Yet no evidence exists that central banks can fine-tune anything precisely to the decimal point. And price indexes are not so pinpoint accurate themselves. But the “war” is over.
Yes, overall prices are still rising globally, but they rarely fall. Select categories may, but broadly falling prices – deflation – almost never occurs, thank goodness.
Why? Deep deflation means severe economic contraction – far deadlier than inflation. Consider the US for its global economic might: Reversing US CPI’s post-pandemic rise would mean a situation close to the deflation seen during the Great Depression of 1929 to 1933, or the post-First World War downturn of the early 1920s.
Falling prices sound nice. But deep deflation drives consumers to delay non-essential purchases, expecting lower prices ahead, causing economic activity to collapse.
Winning the inflation war was never about dropping prices, just slowing their rise. Governments never seek zero or negative inflation anyway. Why? Because inflation is their friend, making repaying existing debt cheaper. US government debt tops $38 trillion. If inflation runs near 2 per cent – the Fed’s aim – this gets $760 billion cheaper in after-inflation repayment value every year.
Tariffs? Yes, they are bad economically. But US consumers, not those in targeted nations, will chiefly pay them. Tariffs always hurt the imposing country most. They temporarily skew demand, boosting select categories as businesses and consumers front-run new US taxes on imports.
But tariffs on select items differ from inflation. There is always a churn in prices of select goods or services, which simply governs supply and demand imbalances. Inflation is a broad price increase across the entire economy. It is too much money chasing too few goods and services. Only central banks cause true inflation.
Consider this: During 2020’s Covid chaos, monetary officials inexplicably and bizarrely ballooned money supply. The Eurozone boosted M3 nearly 13 per cent year on year in February 2021. The UK spiked M4 more: 15.2 per cent year on year in the same month. US M4 boomed 30.9 per cent year on year in June 2020. Later, prices galloped – keeping with the monetarist theory that policymakers broadly ignored.
What about now? In September, Eurozone M3 rose 2.8 per cent year on year. US and UK M4 rose 4.5 and 4.2 per cent year on year, respectively, in August. These figures are in line with the low-inflation, pre-pandemic years. They provide minimal fuel to reignite the inflation war.
Tariffs do not affect money supply. They may make some prices rise – mainly unique products people depend on, like generic medications – restricting consumer budgets and, thus, forcing down prices of other, potentially substituted products. Remember US President Donald Trump’s much-hyped first-term tariffs? American inflation never even reached 3 per cent year on year.
Contrary to popular perception, 2025’s US tariffs are not “universal”. Exemptions abound. Companies find ways – legally and illegally – to dodge others. Global prices will see only indirect, temporary effects from all this.
Fighting the last war will not give you an investing edge. Market forecasting requires seeing something big that others do not – and false global inflation fears do not count. Fear of a false factor is always bullish. So, stay bullish.
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Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
JERSEY INFO
Red Jersey
General Classification: worn daily, starting from Stage 2, by the leader of the General Classification by time.
Green Jersey
Points Classification: worn daily, starting from Stage 2, by the fastest sprinter, who has obtained the best positions in each stage and intermediate sprints.
White Jersey
Young Rider Classification: worn daily, starting from Stage 2, by the best young rider born after January 1, 1995 in the overall classification by time (U25).
Black Jersey
Intermediate Sprint Classification: worn daily, starting from Stage 2, by the rider who has gained the most Intermediate Sprint Points.
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
Reading List
Practitioners of mindful eating recommend the following books to get you started:
Savor: Mindful Eating, Mindful Life by Thich Nhat Hanh and Dr Lilian Cheung
How to Eat by Thich Nhat Hanh
The Mindful Diet by Dr Ruth Wolever
Mindful Eating by Dr Jan Bays
How to Raise a Mindful Eaterby Maryann Jacobsen
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Samaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sept 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Skoda Superb Specs
Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol
Power: 190hp
Torque: 320Nm
Price: From Dh147,000
Available: Now
The five pillars of Islam
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The specs
Price, base / as tested Dh960,000
Engine 3.9L twin-turbo V8
Transmission Seven-speed dual-clutch automatic
Power 661hp @8,000rpm
Torque 760Nm @ 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 11.4L / 100k
More on Yemen's civil war
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Read more about the coronavirus
What is tokenisation?
Tokenisation refers to the issuance of a blockchain token, which represents a virtually tradable real, tangible asset. A tokenised asset is easily transferable, offers good liquidity, returns and is easily traded on the secondary markets.
The%20specs
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Chef Nobu's advice for eating sushi
“One mistake people always make is adding extra wasabi. There is no need for this, because it should already be there between the rice and the fish.
“When eating nigiri, you must dip the fish – not the rice – in soy sauce, otherwise the rice will collapse. Also, don’t use too much soy sauce or it will make you thirsty. For sushi rolls, dip a little of the rice-covered roll lightly in soy sauce and eat in one bite.
“Chopsticks are acceptable, but really, I recommend using your fingers for sushi. Do use chopsticks for sashimi, though.
“The ginger should be eaten separately as a palette cleanser and used to clear the mouth when switching between different pieces of fish.”
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
The finalists
Player of the Century, 2001-2020: Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus), Lionel Messi (Barcelona), Mohamed Salah (Liverpool), Ronaldinho
Coach of the Century, 2001-2020: Pep Guardiola (Manchester City), Jose Mourinho (Tottenham Hotspur), Zinedine Zidane (Real Madrid), Sir Alex Ferguson
Club of the Century, 2001-2020: Al Ahly (Egypt), Bayern Munich (Germany), Barcelona (Spain), Real Madrid (Spain)
Player of the Year: Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
Club of the Year: Bayern Munich, Liverpool, Real Madrid
Coach of the Year: Gian Piero Gasperini (Atalanta), Hans-Dieter Flick (Bayern Munich), Jurgen Klopp (Liverpool)
Agent of the Century, 2001-2020: Giovanni Branchini, Jorge Mendes, Mino Raiola
The bio
Date of Birth: April 25, 1993
Place of Birth: Dubai, UAE
Marital Status: Single
School: Al Sufouh in Jumeirah, Dubai
University: Emirates Airline National Cadet Programme and Hamdan University
Job Title: Pilot, First Officer
Number of hours flying in a Boeing 777: 1,200
Number of flights: Approximately 300
Hobbies: Exercising
Nicest destination: Milan, New Zealand, Seattle for shopping
Least nice destination: Kabul, but someone has to do it. It’s not scary but at least you can tick the box that you’ve been
Favourite place to visit: Dubai, there’s no place like home
